IPO · resolved market
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe94dbef856505a4a543dc675d5d2b594f81d44fda7212f4017562c7481e99b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 7c | 518.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 486.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 34c | 233$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 16c | 148.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 68c | 109.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…5286backed Yes | 33c | 105.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 51c | 99.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 63c | 95.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 89.09$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 34.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be at least $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $750M and $825M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.