IPO · resolved market
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38f72045b5791317e79361e4c06cbf928b957acb64770d3fe5b544c4616c1fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 69c | 653.08$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.63 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 427.11$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.98 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…d620backed No | 64c | 264.16$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.78 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 55c | 242.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 51c | 234.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 36c | 233.65$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 226$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 218$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 84 | 1.2%1 W · 83 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -98.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 31c | 214.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 146.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 30c | 127$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.9 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 124.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 56c | 118.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed No | 58c | 109.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked Yes | 29c | 88.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +376.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfc…9cf9backed No | 59c | 86.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 43c | 74.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 48c | 73.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…5286backed No | 56c | 70.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 31c | 67.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 31c | 66.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 65.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 21c | 64.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 55.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 55.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 54.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 39c | 47.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…3525backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 34.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 59c | 32.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…d7f8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…c7eabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 63c | 17.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be at least $900M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $750M and $825M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.