TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$108,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,378 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf189…8e47backed No75c11,667$8,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.483857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes18c10,155$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.171915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes9c7,146$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.1810126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes19c5,641$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.294930.6%15 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes10c4,293$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5534534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c3,069$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.6693040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed No57c2,896$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.9819855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes15c2,543$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.427322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes15c2,315$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7730438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c92…c646backed Yes23c2,218$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes28c2,047$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.544027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d24…06a2backed Yes19c1,494$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No77c1,336$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.7914429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa75…6ec2backed Yes9c1,077$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe708…47d7backed No73c1,021$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No72c1,000$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2855662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf33…3727backed Yes21c994.73$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes25c920.84$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.971,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes65c918.71$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No73c911.28$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3425661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes20c800$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa254…8d57backed Yes30c730.24$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbe…fc51backed Yes3c691.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72cb…5962backed Yes20c615.01$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.4910148.5%49 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes4c551.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes27c545$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.513131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c529.37$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes3c509.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcc1…50dbbacked Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac9…ca59backed Yes19c491.21$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed Yes17c431.89$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x755c…ba9fbacked No79c419.5$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.54100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes8c414.78$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8419535.4%69 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes37c405.97$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8739034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No39c400.56$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.1429264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No72c387.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.274443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes22c384.62$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.621717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xacea…eeecbacked Yes14c360$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa898…71c1backed Yes15c350$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.51816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd29b…5e3dbacked Yes18c341.2$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No77c322.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77da…2fd2backed Yes16c309.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yes12c303.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.331546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+233.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2053…b14abacked Yes68c300$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x782f…bda7backed No62c284.13$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+94%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd189…5378backed No78c256.47$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes67c256.47$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7235334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes21c231.22$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8223323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes6c215$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.911212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed No77c210$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.152240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fd…f553backed Yes71c209.78$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No56c204.76$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.09922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fef…66ecbacked Yes52c198.25$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.091346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked No38c168.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.51580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+99.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes18c166.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4121815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x4810…d688backed No32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…7500backed Yes69c144.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes34c138.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.739745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c138.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes9c133.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126934.8%24 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No75c133.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.326475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No75c130.73$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.737548%36 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No69c120$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.373842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa848…95d0backed Yes13c112.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes28c105.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.634856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No74c103.69$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.033348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4905…3291backed Yes15c101.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e58…4943backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88aa…ea6fbacked Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c0…e924backed No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes66c99.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No55c97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4411133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78c5…f623backed Yes13c96.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1694…8badbacked Yes54c92.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes20c88.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.454717%8 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c87.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No80c85.48$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.433860.5%23 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb896…ac39backed Yes70c85.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No61c81.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.962740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes78c77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.37633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No74c75.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5420624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked No37c72.81$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.811729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114d…661fbacked Yes75c66.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.33966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes25c66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a35…633abacked Yes19c65.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.214143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…c90bbacked No72c59.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.82842.9%12 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes78c56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No76c53.98$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.064346.5%20 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb47…e76cbacked Yes19c52.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aab…1323backed Yes25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03bc…530cbacked No63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7172…5e45backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+36.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa18d…9b51backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5154…a301backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.998955.1%49 W · 40 L+13.2wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+47.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.