TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes7c11,692$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.4329236.3%106 W · 186 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d970backed Yes9c6,940$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x913d…1508backed Yes11c4,894$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.49742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+112.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6089…5acbbacked Yes10c4,545$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.2490%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes21c3,424$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.011838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea2…a4f7backed No78c3,325$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.587100%7 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes15c3,131$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.0127322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ed…aa53backed No74c2,621$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.853158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97cf…c6ebbacked Yes43c2,444$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb828…6703backed Yes7c2,236$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.11616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No42c1,973$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.094930.6%15 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa556…5c0ebacked Yes16c1,908$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes14c1,864$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.132313%3 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes40c1,601$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.2830438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes9c1,579$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.353525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes10c1,489$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.897328.8%21 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+56.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No76c1,375$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.428650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes13c1,260$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.621,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82a3…c11abacked Yes12c1,198$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.393531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+152.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes20c1,191$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.0329264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8693…31cdbacked Yes5c1,040$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+363.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes31c939.55$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.796240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes6c876.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6111212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes12c779.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.220624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e01…a4babacked Yes9c718.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes22c705.64$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7534534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes6c617.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.89979.3%9 W · 88 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-43.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes14c608.79$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.991,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf138…60a4backed Yes11c501.49$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes21c484.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xebcd…d2efbacked No77c416.2$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.18862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x112d…a0eabacked Yes7c413.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes10c407.12$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.314856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf88b…8795backed Yes9c400.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes17c368.21$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8635334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2b…a201backed Yes18c355.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.89520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-65.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes47c338.02$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8729447.3%139 W · 155 L+34.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3b30…3949backed Yes12c319.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71246.5%8 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes10c296.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.312126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72cb…5962backed Yes47c294.43$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0110148.5%49 W · 52 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes4c291.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2319855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes36c270.45$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.471844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e3…2151backed Yes38c262.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84dd…6938backed Yes20c251.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes42c236$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.184443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes5c223.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85488.3%4 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes15c220.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0123323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x68e3…d406backed Yes42c215.31$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…0317backed Yes38c202.2$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+38.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes17c201.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.29214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes20c201.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.452626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.7wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2178…aab5backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3170%0 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x308c…9430backed Yes27c199.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes8c187.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.326114.8%9 W · 52 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes8c181.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.764214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c8…a922backed Yes18c175.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.29520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93e2…92b9backed Yes6c168.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+131.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes7c155.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6318440.2%74 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked No68c145.3$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+53.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No58c130.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.513080%24 W · 6 L+6.7wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+39.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked No64c128$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0810866.7%72 W · 36 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc66b…02aabacked Yes12c113.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.791533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes56c109.08$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.951275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ba…b46dbacked Yes35c107.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.561353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes30c106.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0717752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68de…2309backed Yes49c102.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e29…a4a0backed No69c102.11$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.422040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c90…17efbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.21040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes28c99.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.551275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e58…4344backed Yes36c99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.193540%14 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No37c96.77$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.773023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid+118.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x566c…3d03backed Yes52c85.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.685236.5%19 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051f…0690backed Yes43c72.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5942…90f3backed Yes34c71.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d48…678cbacked No42c71.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf6b…7199backed Yes21c70.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9d…d9babacked Yes30c66.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201952.6%10 W · 9 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+48.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9ce8…ef61backed No56c59.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4699…695abacked No68c53.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No64c52.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.564360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53076.7%23 W · 7 L+7.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+42.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83f1…9693backed Yes51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b58…a73fbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed40…ff51backed Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3731…4bfabacked Yes34c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3daf…3005backed Yes42c49.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No79c46.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0639034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa012…2af7backed No79c43.34$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No56c42.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes47c35.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.837455.4%41 W · 33 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No64c33.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.39745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd35d…ec11backed No68c29.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26bb…03cfbacked No68c28.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.032441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518a…71b3backed No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x101c…15a3backed Yes43c24$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No66c23.48$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.052450%12 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.