Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ecd1105d08fef39596807f54d6620cdac6080000e49ecf901f82fd686a6e5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 23,480$17,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,618.93 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 79c | 12,816$10,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,180.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 10,762$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 74c | 10,230$7,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,564.9 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 36c | 8,507$3,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,423.67 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 59c | 5,694$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,340.06 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 20c | 5,291$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,223.69 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 30c | 4,618$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.62 | 292 | 36.3%106 W · 186 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 23c | 4,547$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,510.26 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913d…1508backed Yes | 11c | 3,966$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,515.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed Yes | 46c | 3,485$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,885.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed No | 54c | 3,205$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 70c | 3,052$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.9 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…5c0ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,026$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 36c | 3,011$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.29 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 2,176$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.66 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,151$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.23 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 58c | 2,007$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.06 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed No | 1c | 1,765$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 31c | 1,750$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.25 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 42c | 1,746$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.31 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 1,658$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.95 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 71c | 1,637$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.68 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97cf…c6ebbacked Yes | 68c | 1,630$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 42c | 1,613$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.95 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 77c | 1,600$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.94 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 5c | 1,599$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 62c | 1,505$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 11c | 1,408$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.73 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed No | 64c | 1,407$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes | 37c | 1,305$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 68c | 1,296$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.75 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 22c | 1,289$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.43 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,260$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.52 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…2fd2backed No | 67c | 1,205$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.69 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 68c | 1,132$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7979…202fbacked No | 64c | 1,111$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 64c | 1,099$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.94 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed No | 38c | 1,055$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.22 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…3124backed Yes | 11c | 1,050$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…60a4backed Yes | 20c | 1,015$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 999.99$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.39 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…36c4backed No | 66c | 967.81$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…ee6abacked Yes | 39c | 928.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 917.84$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.66 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x560d…1028backed Yes | 16c | 877.31$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +252.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 15c | 832.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.42 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…8d20backed Yes | 13c | 809$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +666.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed Yes | 29c | 749.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 33c | 747.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…d854backed No | 70c | 709.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9231…2212backed No | 73c | 687.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 62c | 620.89$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.95 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…67f2backed No | 70c | 616.87$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…6aaebacked Yes | 36c | 609.15$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…8ecebacked No | 68c | 605$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…bd51backed No | 45c | 602.86$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.37 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 62c | 550$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 44c | 536.44$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.17 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…c13dbacked Yes | 11c | 530$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…bc7fbacked Yes | 11c | 513.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 61c | 500$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.78 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xabd4…29d9backed Yes | 29c | 500$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…df53backed Yes | 31c | 500$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 36c | 500$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6742…373fbacked Yes | 29c | 500$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 487.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.79 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb828…6703backed Yes | 10c | 465.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…cf3cbacked Yes | 29c | 450$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431f…dccfbacked Yes | 11c | 438.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +792.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…cf80backed No | 22c | 437.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 61c | 435.97$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 11c | 435.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +363.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 11c | 400$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.2 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8047…8628backed No | 55c | 399.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…3803backed Yes | 52c | 397.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…dbe0backed No | 18c | 393.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 391.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 69c | 384.27$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e1…2d1ebacked No | 36c | 366.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed No | 28c | 362.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…8d11backed Yes | 56c | 357.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…f137backed Yes | 69c | 357.17$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 44c | 351.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…1ba5backed Yes | 29c | 350$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 65c | 350$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…31e3backed Yes | 13c | 347.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +336.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 342.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.36 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 28c | 339.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.66 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe995…06b7backed Yes | 13c | 337.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 21c | 317.22$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.84 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabf…afd2backed No | 70c | 313.55$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 306.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.45 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…1af2backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +224.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 27c | 297.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x407b…1dbdbacked Yes | 34c | 295$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59e…73cabacked No | 66c | 280$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?this page
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?No won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June?Yes won
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.