TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$281,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No75c23,480$17,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,618.9393040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No79c12,816$10,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,180.462638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-45.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No1c10,762$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.75707.1%5 W · 65 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-77.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No74c10,230$7,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,564.93857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes36c8,507$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,423.671838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked No59c5,694$3,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,340.0630438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes20c5,291$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.692313%3 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes30c4,618$1,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.6229236.3%106 W · 186 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes23c4,547$1,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,510.264930.6%15 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x913d…1508backed Yes11c3,966$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,515.52742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+112.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a5b…d952backed Yes46c3,485$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,885.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38b…8996backed No54c3,205$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.91922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No70c3,052$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.96526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa556…5c0ebacked Yes28c3,026$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.48633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed Yes36c3,011$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,932.294626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes31c2,176$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.6614031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes15c2,151$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.232536%9 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No58c2,007$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.068650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x831a…d532backed No1c1,765$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes31c1,750$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.254027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes42c1,746$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.316240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes15c1,658$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.9520624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No71c1,637$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.6825661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97cf…c6ebbacked Yes68c1,630$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No42c1,613$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.9527322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed No77c1,600$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.946848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed No5c1,599$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5511212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes62c1,505$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd281…a3c9backed Yes11c1,408$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.732352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+56.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe15e…d4f8backed No64c1,407$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.09742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes37c1,305$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.685100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked No68c1,296$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.753842.1%16 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.19per pick61cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb82e…5278backed Yes22c1,289$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.437328.8%21 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+56.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes19c1,260$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.521717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77da…2fd2backed No67c1,205$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.691643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-36.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8bb…f9c0backed No68c1,132$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.341650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked No64c1,111$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.78366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes64c1,099$707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.9413538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed No38c1,055$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.2210126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…3124backed Yes11c1,050$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+792.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf138…60a4backed Yes20c1,015$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.55714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c999.99$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.395662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdba…36c4backed No66c967.81$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf847…ee6abacked Yes39c928.99$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes26c917.84$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.6634534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x560d…1028backed Yes16c877.31$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.584100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+252.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes15c832.42$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.423525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0543…8d20backed Yes13c809$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+666.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x863a…e428backed Yes29c749.99$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+145.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e71…c117backed Yes33c747.38$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.381520%3 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+72.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3fd…d854backed No70c709.76$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9231…2212backed No73c687.44$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No62c620.89$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9519535.4%69 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc88e…67f2backed No70c616.87$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc778…6aaebacked Yes36c609.15$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8bf…8ecebacked No68c605$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e2c…bd51backed No45c602.86$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.374360.5%26 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e16…5026backed No62c550$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No44c536.44$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1729447.3%139 W · 155 L+34.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x192d…c13dbacked Yes11c530$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+792.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb4…bc7fbacked Yes11c513.22$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+792.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No61c500$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.7815446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xabd4…29d9backed Yes29c500$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5c…df53backed Yes31c500$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.51963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked Yes36c500$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-71.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6742…373fbacked Yes29c500$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…2385backed Yes10c487.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.792810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb828…6703backed Yes10c465.07$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.24616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe59e…cf3cbacked Yes29c450$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x431f…dccfbacked Yes11c438.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+792.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fea…cf80backed No22c437.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed No61c435.97$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.0119855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8693…31cdbacked Yes11c435.83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+363.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes11c400$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.211637.1%43 W · 73 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8047…8628backed No55c399.99$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34cd…3803backed Yes52c397.85$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f9…dbe0backed No18c393.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No26c391.75$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9112829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed No69c384.27$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.11850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e1…2d1ebacked No36c366.4$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed No28c362.34$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.54856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb389…8d11backed Yes56c357.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.042100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4527…f137backed Yes69c357.17$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes44c351.35$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.032536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…1ba5backed Yes29c350$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No65c350$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.651233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a1…31e3backed Yes13c347.11$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.723100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+336.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c342.05$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.3630839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked Yes28c339.02$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.661662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+53.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe995…06b7backed Yes13c337.23$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+92.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked Yes21c317.22$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.843141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaabf…afd2backed No70c313.55$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-71.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c306.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.4535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked Yes21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.751050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b7…1af2backed Yes7c300$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+224.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40b6…92d5backed Yes21c300$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+201.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8467…f9e4backed Yes27c297.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.62520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x407b…1dbdbacked Yes34c295$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59e…73cabacked No66c280$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.