TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,650

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c7,200$4,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,802.9493840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes26c3,371$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,484.4315446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes75c2,703$2,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.365100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+90.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes25c2,075$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.414027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f63…f247backed No52c1,815$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.638650%43 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes31c1,753$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.8929436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No73c1,684$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234.82638.5%10 W · 16 L-5.8wins-0.22per pick61cpaid-45.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c1,364$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.5920624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No9c1,193$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2527322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes80c1,145$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.4713538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c1,005$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.8135334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes50c953.07$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.4729264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xf8bb…f9c0backed No77c709.99$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.291650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed Yes46c698.18$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.0925661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed No36c660$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.210126.7%27 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes24c646.07$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.921,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes41c560.12$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.4729747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No64c560$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.8611133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfec1…d7fabacked Yes59c526.61$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.062100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No73c500$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3655662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b7…1af2backed Yes10c500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+224.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0a1…31e3backed Yes26c500$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3703100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+336.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad9c…0002backed No72c413.09$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes65c404.33$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.976240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes36c400.87$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0934534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x771a…6be6backed No73c400.1$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c86…c427backed No75c399.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.991080%8 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c350.23$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3530839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No76c264$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.866526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No39c260$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.88339.8%33 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes59c240.53$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.266475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21d9…84f6backed Yes71c215.5$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d00…e1e0backed Yes76c213.17$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.171275%9 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82a3…c11abacked Yes11c204.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.083531.4%11 W · 24 L+4.3wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+152.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes21c200$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1586848.5%33 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x582a…7bb2backed No25c195.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.085135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No34c187.49$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9123323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Yes53c185$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.623076.7%23 W · 7 L+7.2wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+42.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6f8b…56edbacked No10c178.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c166.96$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4730718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf75…cd85backed Yes59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No19c133$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.273842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes10c128.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.029741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes19c124.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid+11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No17c115.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.187548%36 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes26c108$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.924957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d5e…a877backed Yes22c104$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52fd…2ab7backed No18c99.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.52119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5263…7612backed Yes26c98.69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc4…e4acbacked No41c90$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No38c88$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.447832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No62c86.14$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1721815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes58c85.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6810743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes34c85$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.159544.2%42 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No23c80.83$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.469745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes37c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No76c75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5713131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No19c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5511838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No77c68.37$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.93857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No38c62.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.847532%24 W · 51 L-11.1wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd182…941ebacked Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.31233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a35…633abacked No33c58.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes24c52.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.95543.6%24 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4508…8195backed Yes58c52.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No67c52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8414031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aab…1323backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.550%0 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xccac…d0c4backed Yes24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+180.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7172…5e45backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde85…7ffcbacked No38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-59%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed No71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-57.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64fd…7b28backed Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb35…88b9backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba1…1734backed Yes51c49.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6229…207fbacked Yes49c46.94$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+116.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes60c41.12$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.451172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cff…6fbdbacked No71c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.21442.9%6 W · 8 L-4.0wins-0.29per pick72cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x755c…ba9fbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.484100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes30c33.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.581338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f2…e77abacked No70c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.43860.5%23 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick70cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No75c19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2514429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd1e…8d24backed Yes60c18.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.493036.7%11 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.