TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3764…c5eb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
352
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Commoditieslast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT29236.3%106 W · 186 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 292 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.48
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $71 Week of August 17 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.52
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 Week of August 17 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+573.9%+$258.12
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of August 17 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+193%+$76.76
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.88
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on August 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.24
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$239.5
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.62
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$329.25
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.09
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$279
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.9
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $72 on August 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.28
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,250 Week of August 3 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+8,233.3%+$2,790.76
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.67
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+445.4%+$1,204.24
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$404.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$984Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.2%+$483.93
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$67.89
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$153.29
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67%+$15.59
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+662.2%+$851.91
Showing 25 of 292 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$91.2
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$917Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$917.4
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,255Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,255.34
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.96
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$515Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$514.55
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$676Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$675.82
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.35
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.27
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,174.52
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.98
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,576Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,576.16
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$607.5
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.48
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.23
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,835Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,835.19
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$239.66
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+76.9%+$156.67
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.89
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.96
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.12
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.17
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$526Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+32.4%+$170.52
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+450%+$262.51
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.77
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$256Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$66.97
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-71.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.55
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$17.8
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.31
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.63
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.39
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.7
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.74
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.42
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $660b on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.84
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$626Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$626.01
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.15
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.42
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.8%+$103.69
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $155B by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$206.92
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.69
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.16
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.49
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$950Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+126.9%+$1,205.04
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.54
All 19 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-84.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$562.21
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$488.04
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.11
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$607Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$606.63
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.53
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$253.63
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.86
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.26
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.76
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$277.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.