IPO · resolved market
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc140ca4eb594e6b31b0338c8e11a4fe82935cae73c027e0cac4df1576bb3765e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 19c | 773.61$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.81 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 433.42$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 75c | 291$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 6c | 220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 180$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 6c | 167.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 14c | 138.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…225ebacked Yes | 27c | 136$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 135$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 127$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 86.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 72.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…6fd5backed Yes | 33c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…9106backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 51.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 78c | 41.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…03e5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 73c | 27.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a50…5823backed Yes | 44c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…6f8abacked No | 72c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.