TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

IPO · resolved market

Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,572

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in IPO
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b91…2709backed No55c4,250$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9003740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x736f…deaabacked Yes34c3,376$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.381030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes37c3,376$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5011…220ebacked No65c1,513$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.683627.8%10 W · 26 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Yes44c1,300$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5722010%2 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2362…6fd5backed Yes39c807.25$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c758.18$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.1214425.7%37 W · 107 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed Yes35c751.98$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.827346.6%34 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x47a5…b734backed No65c651.33$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…308fbacked Yes45c550$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes36c502.32$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7650…fac1backed Yes36c488.25$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed No71c483.21$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.68475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes7c410$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked No67c368.15$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.012832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc205…5286backed Yes42c338.02$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…3365backed Yes42c320$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No59c304.75$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+44.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-80.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes34c299.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes37c280$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.63161.3%19 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes39c269.2$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.023225%8 W · 24 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0176…ff71backed No79c255.71$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3472…f828backed Yes28c243.57$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No65c241.76$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.621844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes11c241.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1940%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc58c…0a81backed No63c240$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0762…925ebacked Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes36c199.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-48.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e03…beaabacked Yes40c170.01$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.66922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No63c152$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.872334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x557d…c29dbacked No65c116.54$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a8…db62backed Yes39c113.2$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75fb…3d2fbacked Yes36c105.56$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0676…e3c8backed Yes35c100.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a97…0a4dbacked Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc366…e150backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c81.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.65731.6%18 W · 39 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-51.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad61…cbe0backed Yes36c80.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes14c79.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.073237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272552%13 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No67c70$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.811553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes42c64.28$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.062231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-48.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0045…395dbacked No55c63.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…42f0backed Yes36c58.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f19…bf1ebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2588…b3ffbacked Yes48c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No59c51.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.153745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ff9backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1862…8b0fbacked Yes45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x814a…ab7abacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…0a2fbacked No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc440…2e0ebacked Yes47c48.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes37c48.11$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed Yes45c45.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc724…3a19backed No53c44.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82161.9%13 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ae7…561fbacked Yes41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed No69c40$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f73…04d0backed Yes44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes36c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No77c37.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.78977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+45.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadc4…e4acbacked No55c37.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes36c33.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c37…adf5backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e5…9f34backed No65c32.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x740d…2362backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.77875%6 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa528…e221backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…0f06backed Yes36c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes44c26.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.63116.1%5 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb935…fcd2backed No65c26.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71bc…29dcbacked Yes43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf124…9d72backed No63c23.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked No56c21.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No56c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.76475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9892…fd59backed No72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.831040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae3d…d42dbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5d…d10cbacked No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ace…3a5bbacked No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…1245backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a17…d7f8backed No52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+115.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8807…8887backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…ab27backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a6…9110backed No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed No64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb395…3a1fbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No64c17.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.185221.2%11 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-67.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb9d…38bebacked No65c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c3…752abacked No64c16.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.63293.8%30 W · 2 L+6.6wins+0.21per pick73cpaid+28.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.