IPO · resolved market
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14591aec48d4c295e39f1b1867ae9e5493d4464497642d235bdcc58847473e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34b0…d620backed Yes | 32c | 939.01$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.84 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 393.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.88 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed No | 67c | 322.89$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 68c | 312.61$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 22c | 268$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 69c | 221.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.47 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 19c | 219.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…225ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 164.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 155.58$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 142$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 68c | 122.89$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 75.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 63 | 27%17 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 72c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed No | 74c | 67.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…db62backed No | 68c | 54.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…2e0ebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 74c | 35.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…a821backed No | 73c | 33.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 127 | 4.7%6 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2047…629ebacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…94f4backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0457…9828backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 77c | 14.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will Quantinuum not IPO before August 2026?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $10B and $13B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $13B and $16B at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $19B and $22B at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will Quantinuum's market cap be less than $10B at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.