TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b5d…d10c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: IPO, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+129.8%+$51.9
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$33.11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.28
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+157.4%+$64.2
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$399.94
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+272%+$115.41
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.66
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.25
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.22
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$26
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+399.2%+$111.79
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.97
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$5.73
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-49.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.57
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+67.3%+$30.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$11.28
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.91
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$20.42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$516.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell say "Agentic" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublikbacked Alexander Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Playoffsbacked Fake do Biru · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.