AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562d8e6be61af9176d3ed95c775b56202e5e668d7dd703be7c875926f56efdbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $795,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $783,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 600 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 65c | 182,267$117,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117,607.49 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 13c | 119,645$15,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,639.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…713dbacked Yes | 27c | 55,902$15,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,773.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +247%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…9d22backed Yes | 23c | 50,299$11,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,614.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 47c | 34,325$16,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,052.18 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 62c | 33,416$20,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,532.56 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…1591backed Yes | 29c | 23,806$6,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,951.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +502.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 25c | 17,127$4,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,808.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 29c | 16,612$4,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,831.31 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9b…c32dbacked Yes | 73c | 14,378$10,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,953.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7d…40babacked No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 76c | 12,181$9,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.26 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 1c | 10,988$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 31c | 9,318$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,420.66 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4903…a423backed Yes | 32c | 9,133$2,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,248.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +156%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 70c | 7,099$4,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,116.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed No | 43c | 6,689$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.28 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…05cfbacked Yes | 52c | 6,019$3,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,889.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…939dbacked Yes | 21c | 5,718$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,517.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 26c | 5,493$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,043.31 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 73c | 5,272$3,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked No | 79c | 5,182$4,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,068.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…2cf4backed No | 60c | 5,115$3,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,069 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 72c | 4,892$3,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed No | 61c | 4,800$2,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,928 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 58c | 4,050$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.51 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 64c | 4,039$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.68 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,008.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 8c | 3,693$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.63 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,544$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,766.31 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 73c | 3,500$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 74c | 3,500$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 43c | 3,359$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.62 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…b83fbacked No | 6c | 3,186$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed No | 51c | 3,185$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked No | 4c | 3,124$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 59c | 3,000$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 68c | 3,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 2,970$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 81 | 1.2%1 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 10c | 2,892$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.48 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,721$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 60c | 2,548$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked Yes | 68c | 2,532$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.91 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked No | 75c | 2,503$1,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,883 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…7b4dbacked No | 61c | 2,500$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 55c | 2,500$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 22c | 2,500$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…a9ddbacked No | 37c | 2,463$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 30c | 2,348$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 20c | 2,342$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.94 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 63c | 2,270$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 80c | 2,152$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7417…0e5abacked No | 34c | 2,062$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…48e6backed Yes | 42c | 2,020$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 76c | 2,000$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 26c | 1,946$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 71c | 1,912$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.08 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…73a5backed Yes | 54c | 1,840$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 35c | 1,800$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 3c | 1,718$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ef…534fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,711$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 36c | 1,703$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.43 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 34c | 1,613$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.95 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,579$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.19 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 20c | 1,577$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.85 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed No | 28c | 1,518$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 77c | 1,516$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.41 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…10d4backed No | 35c | 1,468$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked No | 78c | 1,464$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.05 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…d7a5backed No | 78c | 1,413$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3f…6e55backed No | 4c | 1,390$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,374$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…4c53backed No | 77c | 1,374$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…64adbacked Yes | 78c | 1,318$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,309$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 70c | 1,306$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.5 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 60c | 1,300$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.98 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…ffddbacked Yes | 45c | 1,258$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed No | 35c | 1,237$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 68c | 1,217$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed Yes | 53c | 1,150$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…af5abacked No | 5c | 1,105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 57c | 1,103$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.19 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ec…2ecbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,096$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.21 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 18c | 1,095$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed No | 26c | 1,094$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 66c | 1,086$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.18 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…25e0backed Yes | 27c | 1,081$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…f6a4backed No | 65c | 1,080$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,075$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…fdcdbacked No | 5c | 1,043$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…3d55backed Yes | 22c | 1,024$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…b8d7backed No | 67c | 1,000$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed No | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb5…abf6backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 36c | 998.75$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.