AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb07ab8bd8f2b94a37869cea9c163ec6eb0fc1471d51fc46b25ba5581b3c3f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 15,667$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 2,252$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.22 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 75c | 1,326$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.82 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 8c | 1,111$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.34 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 23c | 1,081$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…2d4fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,059$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,035$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 29c | 1,029$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked No | 61c | 990.25$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.2 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8355…19afbacked Yes | 11c | 897.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 19c | 801.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 634.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e8…8931backed Yes | 23c | 593.45$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…3c81backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…491abacked Yes | 6c | 575.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed No | 78c | 565.98$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 10c | 462$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ee…8d47backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 442.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 15c | 432.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 427$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f0…85eabacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…886fbacked Yes | 16c | 331$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 14c | 324.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 321.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…b49fbacked Yes | 16c | 256.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…09babacked Yes | 9c | 239.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…ef70backed Yes | 21c | 233.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…cf78backed Yes | 9c | 219.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Yes | 9c | 217.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…40c1backed Yes | 23c | 186.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a1…70e2backed Yes | 15c | 169.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 120$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 78c | 120$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…e775backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd922…310fbacked Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 79c | 90.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…70a9backed Yes | 14c | 79.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…6e89backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.