AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3acb42d4a4da859a82ec3c78e6be641489985672ea7f28ae73da7c253af32fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,337,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,098,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,337,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 752 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 76c | 233,995$178,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,475.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 33c | 70,057$22,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,987.22 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x041f…fd1bbacked Yes | 22c | 64,919$14,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,282.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…4323backed Yes | 24c | 46,233$10,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,990.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 59c | 35,896$21,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,885.24 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 23c | 35,799$8,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,315.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962e…578dbacked Yes | 29c | 32,195$9,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,190.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…5281backed Yes | 2c | 23,353$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…a6fcbacked Yes | 38c | 23,279$8,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,731 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 63c | 22,823$14,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,498.71 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 22,059$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…f77ebacked No | 78c | 21,785$16,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,792.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2629…4aaabacked No | 78c | 21,747$16,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,784.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 1c | 21,677$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…f47cbacked No | 78c | 21,387$16,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 21,188$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 1c | 18,314$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f5…0ba5backed Yes | 15c | 17,389$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,689.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfb…1b77backed Yes | 28c | 17,083$4,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,810.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,750$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 64c | 14,675$9,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,365.28 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…6ff2backed Yes | 10c | 14,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 29c | 11,951$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.32 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 38c | 11,584$4,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,412.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 7c | 10,248$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.79 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…9b9abacked Yes | 29c | 10,219$2,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 24c | 10,176$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 57c | 10,000$5,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,710 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 70c | 9,924$6,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.98 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…1f77backed Yes | 13c | 9,880$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…2112backed Yes | 14c | 8,840$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 7c | 8,419$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 67c | 7,743$5,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,579.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…019ebacked Yes | 13c | 7,585$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c92…00f8backed Yes | 20c | 7,470$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,250$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…a912backed Yes | 40c | 6,640$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c4…003fbacked Yes | 39c | 6,492$2,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 25c | 6,046$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.5 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 57c | 5,807$3,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,309.48 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…9d38backed Yes | 8c | 5,215$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 2c | 5,096$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 26c | 5,012$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.87 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 13c | 4,882$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 4,695$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 4,636$3,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.6 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…3474backed Yes | 13c | 4,188$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 36c | 4,130$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ea…b38ebacked Yes | 21c | 4,092$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…bd55backed No | 67c | 3,739$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 67c | 3,356$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…6eecbacked Yes | 18c | 3,254$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…67b3backed Yes | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 69c | 2,923$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…60cabacked Yes | 1c | 2,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 69c | 2,735$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.18 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 2,726$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…2a5dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,712$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 27c | 2,711$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.71 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…b9f1backed Yes | 32c | 2,700$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 62c | 2,603$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.83 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…fa1fbacked Yes | 31c | 2,600$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…92cbbacked Yes | 47c | 2,552$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 58c | 2,492$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.88 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 57c | 2,486$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…c2a2backed Yes | 4c | 2,461$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 29c | 2,407$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.53 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 30c | 2,319$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.12 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes | 58c | 2,221$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e1…8c19backed No | 70c | 2,210$1,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.57per pick | 26cpaid | +419.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,208$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 76c | 2,204$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.01 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…1867backed No | 65c | 2,157$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 24c | 2,113$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,085$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.76 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…774abacked Yes | 24c | 2,075$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…d5aabacked Yes | 4c | 2,031$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +249.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…98cfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,840$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 36c | 1,799$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,712$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 26c | 1,702$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed No | 60c | 1,676$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 32c | 1,673$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,650$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…1986backed Yes | 33c | 1,587$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 38c | 1,585$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,558$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…939dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,539$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…6930backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…c25bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,488$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 1,457$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 28c | 1,400$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d08…9165backed Yes | 33c | 1,400$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…7d27backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…4777backed No | 73c | 1,374$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.