TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a66…9051

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Premier League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Kyoji Horiguchi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$444
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melsik Baghdasaryan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$241
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Allan Nascimento · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$338.57
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$280
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Steve Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gabriel Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$240.2
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Tom Nolan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+207.3%+$414.63
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Édgar Cháirez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.56
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Joaquin Buckley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$177
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Jeremy Stephens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yadong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$357
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$257.58
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Pulyaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$174
Araujo vs. Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$952Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$951.54
Meerschaert vs. de Ridderbacked Meerschaert · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,022Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$1,021.73
Topuria vs. Hollowaybacked Topuria · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$7,236Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+40.1%+$2,903.48
Whittaker vs. Chimaevbacked Whittaker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,200
Ankalaev vs. Rakicbacked Ankalaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+28.2%+$1,410.26
Murphy vs. Igebacked Murphy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$4,000Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+31.3%+$1,253.8
Magomedov vs. Petrosyanbacked Magomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2024, EDT+60.2%+$963.97
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$106.43
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$245.16
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$76
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$395
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$672Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST+173.6%+$1,166.7
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,100
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$513Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$513.41
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,457Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+176%+$2,565.12
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT90%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$533Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$533
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$666Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$666.5
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$4,863Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$4,863
Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$3,020.31
Will Russia capture Siversk before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$400
Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$785Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$785
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$150
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$400
All 9 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$331
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+39.8%+$198.8
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$500
Will Trump say "America" five or more times in his speech after the election is called?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+160.8%+$321.63
Will Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$600
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$650
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+112.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,554Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2024, EDT+146.5%+$3,740.39
Spain vs. France - Who will advance?backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$896Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2024, EDT+78.6%+$704
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$550.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Rico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.