Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36486ce8c3fa43e8f3c3c030fb1e9dd90d25304acedb008f5663ddcd528b9565
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,341,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,629,319
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,341,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 4c | 3,940,394$176,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176,894.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 10c | 168,328$16,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,174.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 4c | 133,351$5,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,103.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa971…e347backed Yes | 14c | 72,671$10,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,271.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 13c | 70,427$9,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,416.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…cc08backed Yes | 18c | 62,229$11,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,012.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 9c | 55,197$5,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,114.66 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e9…59a8backed Yes | 6c | 49,220$2,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…725dbacked Yes | 6c | 48,705$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…4a84backed Yes | 13c | 46,808$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 10c | 40,820$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 7c | 40,430$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 6c | 39,984$2,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,572.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 38,570$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.85 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 37,782$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.71 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…7ae1backed Yes | 9c | 33,464$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f1…f00ebacked Yes | 0c | 32,451$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 8c | 31,961$2,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.16 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 10c | 31,189$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,035.24 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…13febacked Yes | 20c | 25,873$5,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,048.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 9c | 23,771$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,158.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 11c | 22,900$2,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.9 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 1c | 21,808$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x342f…8e88backed Yes | 6c | 21,162$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed Yes | 12c | 20,937$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…1786backed Yes | 8c | 20,187$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 7c | 19,786$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.5 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 5c | 19,454$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.59 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 9c | 18,976$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…2b6dbacked Yes | 32c | 18,702$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 10c | 17,615$1,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 13c | 16,856$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 9c | 16,644$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235d…e242backed Yes | 6c | 15,000$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 13c | 14,803$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.95 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafc…bc43backed Yes | 16c | 14,665$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,330.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…386dbacked Yes | 6c | 13,985$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…5224backed Yes | 6c | 13,775$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…da18backed Yes | 1c | 13,473$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 11c | 13,317$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 9c | 13,150$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.12 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 10c | 13,108$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 14c | 12,886$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca7…0576backed Yes | 6c | 12,321$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…d15cbacked Yes | 7c | 12,165$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 5c | 11,826$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…3356backed Yes | 0c | 11,279$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9eacbacked Yes | 10c | 10,818$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 7c | 10,196$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.73 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Yes | 11c | 9,890$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f13…ca3dbacked Yes | 41c | 9,844$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…807cbacked Yes | 9c | 9,661$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 4c | 9,632$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.14 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 5c | 9,437$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 11c | 9,402$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 17c | 9,243$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,655.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 25cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…b2febacked Yes | 7c | 9,012$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…1dd9backed Yes | 10c | 8,919$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 8,200$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9457…3039backed Yes | 14c | 7,718$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…6b25backed Yes | 9c | 7,490$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 7,361$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.01 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 7c | 7,152$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.27 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 10c | 6,997$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Yes | 1c | 6,647$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…397cbacked Yes | 11c | 6,298$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 8c | 6,283$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.27 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…01e6backed Yes | 10c | 6,194$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 2c | 6,142$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…643ebacked Yes | 12c | 5,928$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb02…48d7backed Yes | 6c | 5,761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,541$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.06 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b22…ecccbacked Yes | 9c | 5,529$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 5,462$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 9c | 5,384$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2617…a4b6backed Yes | 22c | 5,380$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 12c | 5,270$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…5333backed Yes | 10c | 5,154$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 7c | 5,082$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.3 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 8c | 5,075$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,012$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.73 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked Yes | 16c | 5,000$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 7c | 4,838$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 1c | 4,750$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Yes | 8c | 4,593$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…d1e9backed Yes | 13c | 4,347$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…b7a3backed Yes | 7c | 4,166$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 7c | 4,150$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 4,147$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…0f97backed Yes | 11c | 3,921$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…0601backed Yes | 18c | 3,788$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…84fdbacked Yes | 19c | 3,773$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 13c | 3,744$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 35cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…f72fbacked No | 60c | 3,711$2,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…1045backed Yes | 14c | 3,595$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.08 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -93%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…7698backed Yes | 10c | 3,570$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 28c | 3,523$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…f3a5backed Yes | 12c | 3,402$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.