Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14f3c691eb70657c6943de44fc45640e93baf393c40299fb1386693a0a77f3f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,911,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,911,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 0c | 320,717$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 180,485$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.71 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 124,779$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.34 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 98,097$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.14 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes | 1c | 71,809$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.29 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 70,229$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.85 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e4…f979backed Yes | 1c | 63,866$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 50,030$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 0c | 48,322$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.35 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa971…e347backed Yes | 1c | 35,388$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…a776backed Yes | 0c | 32,222$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…ddccbacked Yes | 2c | 24,644$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf315…9b14backed Yes | 0c | 24,155$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…2aafbacked Yes | 1c | 21,809$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedfb…6c0bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,345$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fc…1881backed Yes | 0c | 21,202$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22e…270abacked Yes | 1c | 20,315$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21dc…3c76backed Yes | 0c | 20,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,906$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed Yes | 3c | 18,489$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…efc6backed Yes | 2c | 15,077$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…9082backed Yes | 1c | 13,825$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…d6b4backed Yes | 1c | 12,355$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…ed32backed Yes | 0c | 12,219$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 11,916$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa4…f5e2backed Yes | 1c | 11,612$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…fa87backed Yes | 1c | 11,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…011bbacked Yes | 2c | 10,375$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e12…0ea4backed Yes | 0c | 10,193$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…4fe5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…a999backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…041dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 1c | 9,437$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…80c0backed Yes | 0c | 8,823$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6f57backed Yes | 1c | 8,783$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 1c | 8,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…62debacked Yes | 4c | 7,729$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…921cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,668$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…f529backed Yes | 0c | 6,439$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…87edbacked Yes | 0c | 5,141$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…b118backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8670…d685backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…f195backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1241…2713backed Yes | 1c | 4,403$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 1c | 4,384$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…02f3backed Yes | 2c | 4,371$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…dd49backed Yes | 0c | 3,833$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,823$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…afa4backed Yes | 1c | 3,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…e0e4backed Yes | 0c | 3,642$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…2d9cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,601$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…1390backed Yes | 0c | 3,413$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…e33dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 3,282$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…3e75backed Yes | 4c | 2,984$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…ac8bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,904$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…fc91backed Yes | 2c | 2,874$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d5d1backed Yes | 5c | 2,170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 1c | 1,758$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…eadfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa358…066dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…503dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,252$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 1c | 974.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 1c | 835.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 2c | 699.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…2f34backed Yes | 2c | 659.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…5ef7backed Yes | 4c | 542.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c3aabacked No | 50c | 63.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.