Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d283e7709d0b7c7bbd499585e027e45118417bd0e3e2670912a03ae0ff3de90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,874,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,626,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,874,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 853 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3227…2727backed Yes | 64c | 252,473$160,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,519.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…a007backed Yes | 52c | 175,595$91,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,341.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 79c | 169,576$133,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,918.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…da18backed No | 1c | 124,417$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc2…a09cbacked No | 0c | 119,103$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 72c | 60,236$43,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,828.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…e006backed Yes | 62c | 57,548$35,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,671.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 8c | 52,605$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…1455backed Yes | 57c | 44,013$25,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,771.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 29c | 37,590$10,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,987.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 11c | 34,954$3,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,948.46 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed No | 52c | 32,722$16,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,921.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 13c | 28,222$3,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,679.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…be65backed Yes | 76c | 26,805$20,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,366.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 49c | 23,488$11,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,913.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…1801backed Yes | 48c | 22,654$10,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,748.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed No | 54c | 17,090$9,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,292.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8899…c64bbacked Yes | 69c | 14,855$10,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,534.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…d1d2backed No | 2c | 14,179$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed No | 1c | 13,119$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed No | 32c | 12,997$4,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,097.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 59c | 12,718$7,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,219.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 62c | 12,505$7,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,782.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…6d8fbacked No | 9c | 12,302$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 56c | 12,201$6,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,365.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…c3dabacked Yes | 64c | 11,681$7,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 45c | 11,258$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,193.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 44c | 11,132$4,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,187.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9a…1573backed No | 1c | 11,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e5…d034backed No | 1c | 10,793$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed No | 16c | 10,653$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…9f44backed Yes | 56c | 9,602$5,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,224.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed No | 1c | 9,560$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 41c | 9,382$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…99d7backed No | 5c | 8,998$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…24a5backed Yes | 57c | 8,848$5,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,811.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 7c | 8,429$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.36 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…aecabacked Yes | 29c | 8,059$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,709.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +214.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc87c…46b7backed No | 39c | 7,956$3,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,104.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…a602backed Yes | 65c | 7,733$5,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,674.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf0…3cc0backed Yes | 60c | 7,557$4,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 43c | 7,507$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,310.79 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…4253backed Yes | 63c | 7,390$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…f6d8backed No | 2c | 7,117$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…2b63backed Yes | 69c | 7,093$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 6,881$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc116…6f0abacked No | 20c | 6,708$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed Yes | 55c | 6,453$3,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed No | 1c | 6,091$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Yes | 77c | 6,064$4,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…1ce8backed No | 2c | 5,646$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked No | 1c | 5,593$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…751bbacked Yes | 57c | 5,587$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,393.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…f72fbacked No | 18c | 5,556$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 77c | 5,536$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 13c | 5,500$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 75c | 5,471$4,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,099.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 8c | 5,428$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.24 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d9…df1bbacked Yes | 52c | 5,291$2,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,527.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 64c | 5,212$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,360.62 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…acc4backed Yes | 71c | 5,179$3,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…f00cbacked Yes | 35c | 5,163$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,352.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4987…804bbacked No | 57c | 5,127$2,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,922.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed No | 1c | 5,100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea7…fdefbacked No | 34c | 5,060$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f87…f277backed Yes | 78c | 5,000$3,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked No | 17c | 4,932$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked No | 8c | 4,921$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeeb…15eabacked Yes | 73c | 4,708$3,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 11c | 4,600$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…62b7backed Yes | 45c | 4,412$1,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 77c | 4,302$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d35…c1bcbacked No | 18c | 4,233$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 70c | 4,138$2,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,259.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…8e1ebacked Yes | 28c | 4,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,880 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c8…c493backed Yes | 73c | 3,861$2,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 56c | 3,807$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…7fa0backed No | 22c | 3,636$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…0f97backed Yes | 53c | 3,602$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…7424backed Yes | 49c | 3,569$1,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed No | 19c | 3,480$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.79 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No | 6c | 3,456$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d5d1backed No | 25c | 3,412$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 49c | 3,389$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 60c | 3,333$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…38e5backed Yes | 47c | 3,315$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 48c | 3,230$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…c6d5backed Yes | 44c | 3,181$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…aecabacked Yes | 66c | 3,150$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1d6ebacked Yes | 74c | 3,111$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…ce7bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,100$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 47c | 3,087$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,632.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…0cc9backed No | 11c | 3,075$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c3…f9acbacked No | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…4675backed Yes | 27c | 2,989$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 35c | 2,986$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 67c | 2,900$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…bcd3backed Yes | 61c | 2,809$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed Yes | 61c | 2,794$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…1b14backed No | 38c | 2,637$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.