Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69fe789035024528095ed46c8e4cf18d3cfbfdb22109c0c223c4502c99242d97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,115,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,402,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,115,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 291 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b8b…4b24backed Yes | 4c | 159,008$6,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,033 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…d1d2backed Yes | 0c | 116,500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…bedcbacked Yes | 3c | 96,778$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 92,000$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda80…7a75backed Yes | 6c | 86,898$5,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,544.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2037…2ad0backed Yes | 3c | 74,715$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 70,180$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…3649backed Yes | 0c | 67,712$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…4195backed Yes | 5c | 61,733$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 58,720$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.58 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes | 3c | 57,550$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 54,764$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…6c41backed Yes | 7c | 54,621$4,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,078.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…e920backed Yes | 9c | 54,546$5,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,161.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea7…fdefbacked Yes | 4c | 45,838$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed Yes | 7c | 41,805$2,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,920.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed Yes | 0c | 38,100$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 32,344$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.09 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…1f65backed Yes | 2c | 29,523$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…8118backed Yes | 1c | 29,074$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 1c | 24,928$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa971…e347backed Yes | 6c | 24,000$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 23,477$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.73 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,189$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 22,690$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.83 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…fbb3backed Yes | 13c | 22,417$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,885.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x075b…c615backed Yes | 7c | 21,609$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b6…80b9backed Yes | 24c | 21,184$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01d…be65backed Yes | 5c | 21,059$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…62e5backed Yes | 1c | 20,850$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84bf…01d2backed Yes | 4c | 20,297$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…c094backed Yes | 3c | 19,607$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…756bbacked Yes | 1c | 19,437$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea73…e7a3backed Yes | 6c | 19,098$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…ff75backed Yes | 8c | 17,831$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 17,685$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 5c | 17,478$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 5c | 17,306$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 2c | 17,024$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.01 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 1c | 16,343$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7d…5e06backed Yes | 5c | 15,888$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…58a0backed Yes | 2c | 15,357$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…1ab0backed Yes | 4c | 15,022$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c0…bb10backed Yes | 5c | 15,010$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,836$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…92cbbacked Yes | 1c | 13,648$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…a52cbacked Yes | 4c | 13,205$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0faa…1725backed Yes | 8c | 12,616$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 4c | 12,519$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…de93backed Yes | 2c | 12,258$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9d84backed Yes | 1c | 12,096$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 11,707$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ea…b141backed Yes | 3c | 11,154$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…6bd2backed Yes | 13c | 11,000$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 2c | 10,742$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 5c | 10,580$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 7c | 10,412$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 80c | 10,079$8,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 1c | 10,001$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…584bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,889$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…4be9backed Yes | 7c | 9,656$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…320fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,621$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4a…80acbacked Yes | 1c | 9,588$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…ef69backed Yes | 1c | 9,450$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 9,410$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff98…908ebacked Yes | 24c | 9,165$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…8d41backed Yes | 9c | 9,052$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…17a8backed Yes | 3c | 9,051$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161e…3bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 9,013$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…c203backed Yes | 1c | 8,903$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1945…e29dbacked Yes | 6c | 8,581$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…ff17backed Yes | 2c | 8,364$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,132$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb356…fe6abacked Yes | 6c | 7,941$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…80e1backed Yes | 6c | 7,866$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b1…238cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,389$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc8…509fbacked Yes | 7c | 7,248$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,961$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3b…ffcebacked Yes | 4c | 6,920$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…0efcbacked Yes | 1c | 6,750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 4c | 6,689$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…cac9backed Yes | 1c | 6,399$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…d6b4backed Yes | 1c | 6,386$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…efc6backed Yes | 9c | 6,356$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced9…6d9abacked Yes | 9c | 6,227$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5510…8af1backed Yes | 3c | 6,194$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…fa87backed Yes | 3c | 6,146$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 4c | 6,129$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.59 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e4…184ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,118$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…de1cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,066$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…4761backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…1ab1backed Yes | 5c | 5,707$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6f57backed Yes | 7c | 5,678$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…3cc8backed Yes | 5c | 5,660$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…ac8bbacked Yes | 6c | 5,597$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 3c | 5,521$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…a946backed Yes | 5c | 5,455$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.