Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39af89511ebd36a29d23ea83f128d5141fb21c9b6917c6e8a4cbe57fdce15b1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,617,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,839,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,617,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d30…69dabacked Yes | 11c | 441,319$50,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,066.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…7d85backed Yes | 5c | 256,015$12,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,218.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…acc4backed Yes | 6c | 180,323$11,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,444.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…58c5backed Yes | 12c | 138,071$16,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,581.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 3c | 135,056$3,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,594.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 1c | 83,057$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 29c | 67,682$19,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,859.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa971…e347backed No | 53c | 65,736$34,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,858.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 25c | 62,795$15,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,516.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 1c | 58,828$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 49,107$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,963.45 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 46,174$1,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…4035backed Yes | 15c | 42,899$6,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,229.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…15b5backed Yes | 23c | 39,985$9,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,012.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1132…b048backed Yes | 0c | 39,806$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 11c | 38,901$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,234.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6f…37b1backed Yes | 20c | 37,385$7,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,331.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Yes | 14c | 36,381$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c54…ef13backed Yes | 0c | 35,328$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…4122backed Yes | 0c | 35,328$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 21c | 34,059$7,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,066.08 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…876dbacked Yes | 23c | 32,899$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,439.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…29bebacked Yes | 4c | 31,200$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…b972backed Yes | 8c | 26,560$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 7c | 25,793$1,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,816.53 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…2534backed Yes | 9c | 23,799$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,045.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa0…e79bbacked Yes | 9c | 23,767$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 47c | 23,646$11,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,201.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,625$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 6c | 23,586$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.08 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…d6b4backed Yes | 20c | 23,012$4,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,489.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…1947backed Yes | 11c | 21,914$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…f95fbacked Yes | 9c | 21,888$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a17…1bdfbacked No | 64c | 20,460$13,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,432.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…fa07backed No | 66c | 20,391$13,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,850.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed Yes | 4c | 20,111$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7a…06e4backed Yes | 5c | 20,017$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…122bbacked Yes | 20c | 20,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…4242backed Yes | 10c | 19,825$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…5f4ebacked Yes | 26c | 19,329$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4579…9352backed Yes | 52c | 19,141$9,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,998.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d3…7002backed Yes | 2c | 17,964$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Yes | 9c | 17,821$1,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,603 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…4576backed Yes | 3c | 17,035$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…73c3backed Yes | 6c | 17,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 69c | 16,132$11,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,925.49 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e1…ff55backed Yes | 9c | 14,988$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…d28dbacked Yes | 10c | 14,806$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d50…1708backed Yes | 5c | 14,644$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd807…bedcbacked Yes | 33c | 14,589$4,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,872.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…a007backed No | 54c | 14,480$7,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,624.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…62b7backed No | 60c | 14,087$8,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,677.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cd…f71abacked Yes | 14c | 13,631$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…2500backed No | 80c | 12,618$10,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…1372backed Yes | 6c | 12,514$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…e0acbacked Yes | 40c | 12,466$4,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,951.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed No | 62c | 12,354$7,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,692 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…e7a9backed Yes | 17c | 12,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes | 6c | 11,711$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…77ecbacked Yes | 23c | 10,900$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 9c | 10,571$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 15c | 10,436$1,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.5 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 59c | 10,176$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…f1cfbacked Yes | 10c | 10,131$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…6e95backed Yes | 12c | 10,089$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…2465backed No | 50c | 10,081$5,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,040.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x352f…8ddcbacked Yes | 53c | 10,074$5,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,366.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…fd93backed Yes | 50c | 10,073$5,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,034.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…3356backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…361dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98dd…d898backed Yes | 19c | 9,970$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,877.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe425…3be6backed Yes | 4c | 9,953$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…cf89backed Yes | 21c | 9,952$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…9f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 9,950$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 4c | 9,931$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…93a1backed Yes | 6c | 9,912$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…e78cbacked Yes | 7c | 9,883$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…a9b4backed Yes | 6c | 9,842$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb0…d15cbacked Yes | 34c | 9,714$3,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,303.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 9,632$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.49 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…b36abacked Yes | 0c | 9,445$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed No | 25c | 9,418$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,042.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 6c | 9,034$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5814…d9f3backed Yes | 9c | 8,419$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc125…15fcbacked Yes | 6c | 8,396$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…5b86backed Yes | 14c | 8,339$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ad…55e1backed Yes | 41c | 8,188$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,391.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c46…3f61backed Yes | 25c | 8,119$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Yes | 3c | 7,731$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…009fbacked Yes | 9c | 7,570$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…d185backed Yes | 5c | 7,503$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…5e3fbacked Yes | 35c | 7,479$2,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…037ebacked Yes | 7c | 7,443$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…e05cbacked Yes | 9c | 7,382$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed No | 56c | 7,340$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +293%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb4…63e4backed Yes | 15c | 7,292$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…d07bbacked Yes | 14c | 7,144$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.