Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9662074d7926b124f8e24d757ed50064a2f5f81d2ba4b6747ef352af33d87d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,570,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $809,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,570,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 156 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x421e…43f5backed Yes | 0c | 345,812$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 0c | 250,000$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 1c | 200,177$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.91 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…4088backed Yes | 1c | 179,082$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,656.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 138,089$2,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,895.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…4b52backed Yes | 0c | 78,252$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 61,074$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.65 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa0…e79bbacked Yes | 1c | 54,923$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…584abacked Yes | 2c | 44,885$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 40,389$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.7 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…71f4backed Yes | 1c | 39,841$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 1c | 37,698$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…738ebacked Yes | 3c | 37,292$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c5…45e9backed Yes | 1c | 34,084$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf137…bf1fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,458$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…776fbacked Yes | 5c | 31,764$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 31,316$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.76 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…9e1ebacked Yes | 1c | 30,119$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…f529backed Yes | 0c | 27,472$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…cfccbacked Yes | 3c | 22,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…5333backed Yes | 2c | 20,759$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…ff75backed Yes | 8c | 18,972$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7c…07d9backed Yes | 1c | 18,882$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 2c | 18,553$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…3675backed Yes | 3c | 17,135$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…8b68backed Yes | 1c | 16,901$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 0c | 16,900$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 1c | 16,495$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…cd04backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe870…e2dbbacked Yes | 1c | 13,654$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…6b44backed Yes | 3c | 13,390$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1249…6666backed Yes | 1c | 13,252$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…e920backed Yes | 3c | 12,442$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e43…e0e4backed Yes | 3c | 12,225$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…b1d4backed Yes | 3c | 10,509$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…5fb5backed Yes | 2c | 10,348$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b2…bc87backed Yes | 1c | 10,256$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…a38fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4892…3edebacked Yes | 2c | 9,842$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6f57backed Yes | 2c | 9,667$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 9,541$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…0741backed Yes | 1c | 9,219$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffd…a469backed Yes | 5c | 8,753$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed Yes | 1c | 8,631$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 6c | 7,906$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.39 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…cf73backed Yes | 3c | 7,603$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…8d41backed Yes | 3c | 7,300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…ed32backed Yes | 2c | 7,063$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…2014backed Yes | 6c | 6,531$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…d727backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,832$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,750$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023b…bce8backed Yes | 3c | 5,698$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…c487backed Yes | 5c | 5,226$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…c3b5backed Yes | 30c | 5,048$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 1c | 5,013$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,974$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…a22ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…fd4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,130$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 1c | 3,980$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…ac8bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,855$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…3db9backed Yes | 7c | 3,343$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…5176backed Yes | 2c | 3,285$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…073abacked Yes | 2c | 3,280$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 3c | 3,163$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf063…ebc2backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…08f0backed Yes | 3c | 2,865$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,820$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5e…a0c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…91e2backed Yes | 2c | 2,443$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…e9f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa358…066dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,341$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,292$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…1ab1backed Yes | 2c | 2,283$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fa…d515backed Yes | 2c | 2,274$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…f195backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…64bfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd40…5d03backed Yes | 3c | 1,960$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad6…7dd8backed Yes | 3c | 1,926$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,855$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…9ec9backed Yes | 3c | 1,728$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8f…34d4backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…bdc4backed Yes | 3c | 1,490$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa011…af81backed Yes | 2c | 1,474$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed Yes | 3c | 1,465$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 1c | 1,464$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907a…b400backed Yes | 4c | 1,401$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…2e01backed Yes | 7c | 1,393$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…f9e9backed Yes | 4c | 1,386$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.