Movies · resolved market
Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ea850592b5a0551fe8d160c5b83e50daaaf0dfea9ece3c7b56447de327ebe90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,409,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $841,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,409,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438a…62e5backed Yes | 0c | 499,636$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cd…7ef2backed Yes | 0c | 440,932$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…e952backed Yes | 0c | 234,004$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.27 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1881…60b6backed Yes | 0c | 108,607$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 94,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeab…3516backed Yes | 0c | 91,518$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…bbcebacked Yes | 1c | 77,436$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 66,251$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.19 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…2d7fbacked Yes | 0c | 39,028$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…996dbacked Yes | 1c | 36,313$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,433$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…0020backed Yes | 3c | 27,848$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b1…238cbacked Yes | 1c | 21,769$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff2…df13backed Yes | 1c | 19,643$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…bdd7backed Yes | 0c | 18,275$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,273$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 1c | 15,706$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9d84backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…a84dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,115$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…d2b5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 9cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa59…2fe4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab2…a999backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11a…5c54backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…3356backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…02b4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Yes | 2c | 7,904$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 0c | 7,310$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,861$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…810ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,733$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…06c7backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5818…657fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 1c | 6,077$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x097a…af78backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…3a08backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…928fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab1…2a73backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f6…189ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,547$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…1ca7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf827…0efcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,516$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…c260backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…2237backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…fecfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…86a2backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…e459backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb474…da47backed Yes | 1c | 2,328$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb8…c253backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824e…f1b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddcf…1ab1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…106abacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,558$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,352$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aac…aad6backed Yes | 1c | 1,262$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…cf73backed Yes | 1c | 1,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…cedfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…1b9fbacked Yes | 2c | 532.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?this page
- Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Dorian Nakamoto as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Elon Musk as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Andresen as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Gavin Wood as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Jed McCaleb as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Paul Le Roux as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?No won
- Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.