TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7dd2…33b8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: UFC, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 59 out of 100; worst NFL at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$542.92
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.5
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$571Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+161.9%+$923.68
Over $50M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.83
Over $12M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$541.41
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+43.7%+$163.52
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+809.1%+$176.3
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$328.73
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$754Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$754.07
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+81.8%+$19.27
alon called coin FDV above $1M one day after the call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+112.8%+$53.75
Ranger FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$889Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$889.1
Ranger FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$99.95
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+276.7%+$944.49
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+156.8%+$354.26
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,051Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+69.1%+$726.16
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$105.16
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Over $140M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Over $160M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$114.92
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 24 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
UFC — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.14
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.57
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$41.08
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Charles Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+134.1%+$130.83
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Tafa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$20.33
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+51.5%+$13.65
Allen vs. de Ridderbacked Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$198.7
Malott vs. Hollandbacked Holland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$274Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$274.28
Vera vs. Zahabibacked Vera · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Grant vs. Jourdainbacked Jourdain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Silva vs. Parkbacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Barlow vs. Santosbacked Santos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$63.75
Oliveira vs. Gamrotbacked Oliveira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+59.8%+$67.66
Figueiredo vs. Jacksonbacked Figueiredo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$38.82
Luque vs. Álvarezbacked Luque · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Ankalaev vs. Pereirabacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$298.19
All 18 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will the HBO documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$273.07
Will the HBO documentary identify Len Sassaman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$385
Will the HBO documentary identify Shinichi Mochizuki as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$239.61
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$474Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$473.71
Will the HBO documentary identify Vili Lehdonvirta as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$10
Will the HBO documentary identify Craig Wright as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$120
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-41.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$49.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.