TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

alon called coin FDV above $1M one day after the call?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$232,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,997

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x76f7…7529backed Yes0c57,291$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5826…abbabacked Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60e1…f445backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x749d…2190backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b96…ffa0backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd6…84cdbacked No76c6,297$4,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…9756backed Yes52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe182…b624backed Yes2c3,748$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011225.9%29 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x739c…e7abbacked No48c3,523$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,832.231637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac1…48edbacked Yes46c2,718$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab2b…2afcbacked No64c2,690$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fd4…c87abacked No43c2,457$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,400.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+80.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabd…6680backed Yes43c2,344$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c36…c1efbacked Yes42c2,300$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked No58c2,165$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.96728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x989b…14c3backed Yes54c2,008$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,087.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes55c2,000$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1053930.8%12 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ac7…e0efbacked Yes59c1,942$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Yes5c1,837$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.79812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed Yes23c1,687$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.095135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb883…1c10backed No62c1,618$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed No35c1,563$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.334959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed No36c1,549$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.057234.7%25 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…8344backed No53c1,548$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x192a…96b6backed No49c1,425$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.16933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick20cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5167…ccefbacked No71c1,411$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9482…976cbacked Yes28c1,393$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3551…1f2abacked Yes27c1,380$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fb…252dbacked Yes49c1,353$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.06520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-66.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca9…216ebacked Yes35c1,254$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2df…e80bbacked No79c1,175$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes42c1,150$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.55453.7%29 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d57…c842backed No62c1,129$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5340…76f9backed Yes16c1,109$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes56c1,100$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6161118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdba2…a8d2backed No45c1,090$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10c8…c0eebacked No46c1,080$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6403256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29d4…41fbbacked Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5302360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes54c935.86$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.991020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd569…48c1backed Yes34c920$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.84334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4dd…eaa2backed Yes28c864.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-82.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa77…bf95backed Yes37c862.94$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.19825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6eea…929abacked Yes25c818.14$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b0…ab7ebacked No39c784.68$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+109.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b55…076fbacked Yes42c771.8$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed No49c769.06$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+47.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Yes51c750$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38510763.6%68 W · 39 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes4c730$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ad…36c0backed No58c726.13$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…ddcfbacked No59c718.24$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes27c713.14$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.98519.8%5 W · 46 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No31c700$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea1d…90f0backed Yes55c700$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-78%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e14…04a3backed Yes65c659.97$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4537…fd02backed No33c611.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.91145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e10…1186backed Yes62c599.98$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.99850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd864…2f3bbacked No48c581.02$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+107.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed81…82eebacked Yes44c577.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.897834.6%27 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaef…1ef9backed No36c537$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd638…b011backed No76c527.27$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…0ba4backed Yes30c522.46$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7089…46d0backed Yes37c508.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc483…8ac8backed Yes52c499.85$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.965040%20 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+29.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc57f…ce96backed No75c498.6$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.561346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2874…c2e7backed No60c487.22$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.052231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Yes45c450$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.32420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f56…a3f5backed Yes69c435.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0039…046ebacked Yes60c430$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25870%0 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x457c…9cf2backed Yes50c413.24$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes42c400$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.586431.3%20 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2805…2a1bbacked Yes63c399.99$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521020%2 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-68%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7484…de96backed Yes61c350.24$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a5…bb7ebacked Yes66c331.99$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.122326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d32…563abacked No48c313.13$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.123540%14 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3350…2186backed No47c311.9$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No54c308.88$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.085416.7%9 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0f…8a1abacked Yes44c294.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ed4…45bdbacked No48c291.88$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb4b…8137backed No46c285$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No70c279.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.63250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5300…0625backed No43c257.14$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.141010%1 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick24cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked No61c256.11$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.113638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x926d…635ebacked Yes64c253.85$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.661643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea4c…c997backed No59c253.7$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa254…4b52backed No43c246.95$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+131.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9349…8d0fbacked Yes69c240$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.43228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes13c239.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.991428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes26c226.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.538528.2%24 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c57…1396backed Yes45c224.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes43c222.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.250%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d3f…8e27backed Yes50c220$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8672…f54ebacked No66c214.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes8c209.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.833043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes52c200$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…50d0backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.