Token Launches · resolved market
alon called coin FDV above $5M one day after the call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ea2d65d3cefe327c7be3e3ad75148cc4ef2b24dd06680c233727065f8495151
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,391
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,391 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4cf…ecbfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,531$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac7…e0efbacked Yes | 29c | 1,110$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…8344backed No | 65c | 920.81$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…c87abacked No | 78c | 898.82$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…5274backed Yes | 23c | 894.96$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed No | 79c | 816.2$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 614.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118a…83efbacked Yes | 24c | 570.1$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd638…b011backed No | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc20…78f3backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…e21abacked No | 77c | 260.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…710dbacked Yes | 15c | 202.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed Yes | 10c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…e80bbacked No | 76c | 171.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…658cbacked Yes | 19c | 167.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes | 54c | 147.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…e7b5backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Yes | 54c | 92.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes | 15c | 74.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8382…f44ebacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- alon called coin FDV above $5M one day after the call?this page
- alon called coin FDV above $10M one day after the call?No won
- alon called coin FDV above $1M one day after the call?No won
- alon called coin FDV above $20M one day after the call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.