Token Launches · resolved market
alon called coin FDV above $20M one day after the call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e3e20fe5bf100e22af159153cb8a5dd31563a5edd2828124a75047ba0d35650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eea…929abacked Yes | 10c | 3,482$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes | 21c | 1,283$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…d9e0backed Yes | 17c | 590.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0995…620dbacked Yes | 12c | 521.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 13c | 507.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…86bcbacked Yes | 14c | 135$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…ede7backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…658cbacked Yes | 14c | 119.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…e00fbacked No | 30c | 82.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Yes | 15c | 67.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7666…57ecbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +378.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x267e…8fe1backed Yes | 39c | 33.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed No | 61c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- alon called coin FDV above $20M one day after the call?this page
- alon called coin FDV above $10M one day after the call?No won
- alon called coin FDV above $1M one day after the call?No won
- alon called coin FDV above $5M one day after the call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.