NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7fc5579a84f6936dd22a44d7c647c28304ec454c2cc650b13de9f3b941edecd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Chargers, Patriots
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Chargers | 43c | 4,257$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.66 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 56c | 3,047$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.23 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chargers | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Patriots | 60c | 2,708$1,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.4 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Patriots | 59c | 2,534$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.08 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Chargers | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Patriots | 63c | 1,112$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.75 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Patriots | 60c | 1,065$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Chargers | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Chargers | 47c | 832.36$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.33 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Patriots | 56c | 446.47$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.58 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Chargers | 39c | 367.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.07 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b24…2d97backed Patriots | 62c | 320.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Chargers | 37c | 285$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9d50backed Chargers | 39c | 255.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chargers | 39c | 216.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Chargers | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Patriots | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…5bd7backed Chargers | 63c | 162.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d7a8backed Chargers | 39c | 145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Chargers | 40c | 126$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Patriots | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Patriots | 59c | 77.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Chargers | 41c | 72.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…a645backed Chargers | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 51cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…0adebacked Patriots | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…0524backed Chargers | 40c | 62.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…4ac9backed Chargers | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Patriots | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Patriots | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Patriots | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa236…7c7ebacked Chargers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Chargers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Patriots | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Chargers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…bd64backed Chargers | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Patriots | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…d746backed Chargers | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…67e0backed Patriots | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ab…6f93backed Patriots | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…94b3backed Patriots | 64c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Patriots | 59c | 18.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Patriots | 59c | 17.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Patriots won
- Chargers vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.