TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,177
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,177 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under47c28,252$13,333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,918.8212055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Over53c21,205$11,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,193.0520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Under47c20,104$9,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,655.3427454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over53c17,983$9,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,530.8724056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over53c12,818$6,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,793.451352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c11,827$5,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,275.711,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Under48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6803447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Under51c8,010$4,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9258747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92073651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Over52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6007464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under75c4,183$3,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.892948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Under75c4,007$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.697164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Over53c3,773$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Over53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5905352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8289…2b2ebacked Over53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5902955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6125…1b5fbacked Over45c2,900$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3051747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Over52c2,200$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14415044.7%67 W · 83 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Under48c2,182$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.614143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Under47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.666647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Over53c1,900$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,01628556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10b…5102backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Over53c1,800$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95414151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under46c1,177$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.7265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e5c…e4f6backed Over53c1,132$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fdb…6f6bbacked Over53c1,043$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd98f…5d9abacked Under55c902.24$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.01475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aba…4961backed Under55c900.99$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.45944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Over54c833.33$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507850%39 W · 39 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under47c769$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.5777052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under46c683.99$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.3583147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Over53c600$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3186246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Over54c555.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b4…03bcbacked Over56c534.89$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over53c500$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26511946.2%55 W · 64 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecd6…5284backed Under48c497.25$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Under47c470.99$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.636124.6%15 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Over53c444$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.328454.8%46 W · 38 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a83…195bbacked Over53c424.53$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-45.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Under48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6721151.2%108 W · 103 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x230a…3be4backed Over53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a45…41f6backed Over53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under6c347.25$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.427435.1%26 W · 48 L+7.3wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+57.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb44…3eafbacked Over53c283$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.992528%7 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Under55c256.35$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.351758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Over53c220.15$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.683056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10431540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c56…269fbacked Over58c171.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004835.4%17 W · 31 L-7.2wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9201…e578backed Under64c160$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.63053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under47c155.89$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.626570.8%46 W · 19 L+11.6wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Under8c150$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.53013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over53c138.73$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5354451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Over54c110$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.45354.7%29 W · 24 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+61.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.34per pick49cpaid+72.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb338…606ebacked Over23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234949%24 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Under48c93.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.753129%9 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x66cb…3111backed Over54c89.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under46c87.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.174639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf34…caf1backed Over53c83.96$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.57358.9%43 W · 30 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0ed1…efcbbacked Over53c73.58$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under41c71.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4219439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under46c64.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5420944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfdb…512cbacked Under47c63.81$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.82837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-25.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2696…c031backed Over45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.25552.7%29 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over19c59.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.42532%8 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadc3…d089backed Over56c57.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+60.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Over53c56.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8312756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f06…2614backed Over58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294860.4%29 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x936f…d171backed Under46c46.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.142152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ef0…7adebacked Over54c46.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa5…9cf3backed Over53c46.23$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f55…bae8backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016048.1%77 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205662.5%35 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick61cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefbf…bd8ebacked Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfddf…67e0backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3759…6b3bbacked Under46c34.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad3…48f2backed Under46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under41c32.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.231,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.615353.6%82 W · 71 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under46c29.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1718745.5%85 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4f2a…700fbacked Over54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc653…bb8cbacked Over56c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over51c26.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.512416.7%4 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-58.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over53c25.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.671872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over54c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.415952.2%83 W · 76 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over51c19.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.193737.8%14 W · 23 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5ad0…5d99backed Over56c19.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.