NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ab7902e4b5602f2c3d34dcdf293d6caeaf994562aa018f2436609b8f010685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Chargers | 48c | 57,001$27,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,288.09 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Patriots | 52c | 30,000$15,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,400 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Patriots | 52c | 20,826$10,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,996.61 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 53c | 5,026$2,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.42 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Patriots | 55c | 3,279$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.46 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Chargers | 45c | 2,020$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.68 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Patriots | 53c | 1,477$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.29 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Chargers | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Chargers | 45c | 932.05$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.42 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed Patriots | 55c | 461.67$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Patriots | 55c | 409.09$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.09 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chargers | 46c | 399.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chargers | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Chargers | 45c | 184.45$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.63 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Patriots | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Chargers | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Patriots | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d5…74eabacked Patriots | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Chargers | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Chargers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Patriots | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Patriots | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Patriots | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7171…81f7backed Patriots | 61c | 16.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)this page
- Chargers vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.