TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Chargers vs. Patriots

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Patriotsof Chargers, Patriots
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,161,656
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,599,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,161,656 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,466 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…2fdabacked Chargers35c314,832$110,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,191.154250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Patriots65c200,000$130,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,999.975154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Chargers36c148,265$53,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,375.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Patriots64c129,100$82,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,093.811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Chargers33c103,802$34,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,008.7816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Chargers35c100,848$35,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,799.3519553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ac4…3081backed Chargers37c100,000$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde4b…d05dbacked Chargers0c98,986$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Patriots64c94,413$60,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,988.757554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Chargers36c85,368$30,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,641.5253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Patriots64c85,036$54,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,599.453070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0b4…fed6backed Patriots64c78,863$50,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,390.533348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Patriots65c75,000$48,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,2501968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Chargers35c73,619$26,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,000.725431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Patriots69c69,682$48,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,405.4320755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Patriots66c59,146$38,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,280.78736.8%32 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Chargers39c55,809$21,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,694.0930043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Chargers20c54,845$11,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,032.987736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Patriots69c50,000$34,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,5003548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Patriots66c47,641$31,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,197.975250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Chargers16c45,500$7,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,164.983724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Chargers37c45,000$16,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,6505648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed Chargers10c44,351$4,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,267.5315132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Chargers35c43,678$15,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,080.926764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Chargers34c39,260$13,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,348.3812144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Chargers21c37,778$7,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,821.7611643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70f…7cc3backed Patriots64c37,451$23,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,543.252100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Patriots69c36,957$25,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,502.7775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Patriots64c36,705$23,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,293.8139447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Chargers12c36,477$4,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,295.1120026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Patriots63c34,420$21,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,719.6812055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Chargers10c34,224$3,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,274.2423244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9c…74b3backed Chargers36c33,531$12,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,071.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Chargers35c30,000$10,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,499.976219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chargers17c29,627$4,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,958.6819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Chargers13c29,600$3,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,943.07757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+154.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Chargers32c28,819$9,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,358.2773651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Chargers35c28,232$9,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,881.1831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Patriots65c27,849$18,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,843.562680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Patriots64c27,520$17,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,987.657255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Chargers29c24,313$7,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,124.9119651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Chargers0c23,584$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.691486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patriots65c23,416$15,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,228.911,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Patriots65c21,678$14,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,587.435356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Chargers36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,20016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Chargers34c20,000$6,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7008343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Chargers35c20,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd661…6e34backed Patriots66c19,685$12,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,785.311442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Chargers35c19,250$6,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,669.895453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Patriots66c18,367$12,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,244.671747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Patriots64c16,658$10,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,036.7512748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Chargers36c16,498$5,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,939.42642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Patriots62c16,006$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,005.511968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Chargers35c16,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6004330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Chargers35c15,661$5,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,481.373447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Patriots64c15,502$9,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,606.6631854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Chargers29c15,500$4,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4952433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Patriots65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2505472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Patriots65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,25016860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Chargers36c15,000$5,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,35023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Chargers35c15,000$5,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,231.1926650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Chargers35c14,898$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.319152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Chargers39c14,545$5,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,643.911833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Chargers42c14,522$6,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,069.612441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Chargers35c14,500$5,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,074.9924957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…9ab5backed Chargers39c14,103$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x673f…428cbacked Patriots65c13,650$8,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,826.98683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+109.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers35c13,000$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,55083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1997…2e36backed Patriots65c12,692$8,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,442.311668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Chargers35c12,031$4,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,211.025536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Patriots65c11,780$7,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,130.44240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Chargers36c11,429$4,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,114.2618650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chargers43c11,336$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,928.0650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Chargers3c11,177$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.531241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Patriots65c10,946$7,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.2514148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Patriots64c10,789$6,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,909.764544.4%20 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Patriots65c10,628$6,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,721.133953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdac8…1d09backed Chargers37c10,405$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,85010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Chargers27c10,187$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.673040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Chargers34c10,040$3,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,413.614440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Chargers34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Patriots65c10,000$6,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.973351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ba…5f1fbacked Chargers35c9,714$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Patriots65c9,572$6,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,350.072369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50be…371bbacked Patriots61c9,156$5,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,570.813557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Chargers5c9,070$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.1116836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chargers24c8,530$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,084.7547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Patriots65c8,508$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,977.691,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Chargers36c8,431$3,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0351546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Patriots75c7,973$5,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Chargers29c7,815$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.747737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Chargers27c7,692$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.379853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Patriots80c7,500$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5002369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+53.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Patriots65c7,229$4,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.232544%11 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Patriots65c6,923$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.0810648.1%51 W · 55 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Chargers12c6,891$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.1922349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Patriots71c6,832$4,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.287557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Patriots64c6,730$4,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.8920661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Patriots74c6,698$4,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,741.482437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Patriots65c6,559$4,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,295.694062.5%25 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.