NFL · resolved market
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x596357e2aa1c0ccb7a24703fc6202fcab147ad1d0155a842b6d9c07051055504
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9201…e578backed Over | 6c | 14,634$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,699.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aba…4961backed Under | 66c | 4,000$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 66c | 976.47$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 5c | 305.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 34c | 172.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 66c | 163.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.43 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 63c | 108.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 67c | 77.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 31c | 39.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Under | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…a166backed Over | 46c | 21.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Patriots won
- Chargers vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.