NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2657b9c2f30370e4a71eedb090aa0ad05494bdc5a4c7a788582c75cb1b6aed49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Patriots | 63c | 900$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Chargers | 36c | 750$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers | 37c | 725.37$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.39 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…7153backed Patriots | 64c | 687.5$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Chargers | 37c | 626.85$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.67 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Patriots | 63c | 239.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0236…fa20backed Patriots | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Chargers | 38c | 149.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chargers | 37c | 132.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Patriots | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cce…91f7backed Patriots | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0104…530ebacked Patriots | 63c | 55.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Patriots | 62c | 54.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Patriots | 61c | 36.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Patriots | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8656…bd69backed Patriots | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Patriots | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chargers | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Patriots | 64c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…916bbacked Patriots | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Patriots won
- Chargers vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.