NFL · resolved market
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8936e5dbd84052997fcf493c628e2df793a94c5857b495f9a3bcf2e09928de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Chargers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Chargers | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Patriots | 47c | 8,959$4,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,748.48 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Patriots | 47c | 8,587$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,535.87 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chargers | 53c | 7,498$3,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,957.32 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Chargers | 54c | 4,800$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.26 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -6.5wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chargers | 52c | 4,050$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.08 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Patriots | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Patriots | 48c | 2,043$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.13 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Patriots | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb77e…e668backed Chargers | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Patriots | 47c | 1,718$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.74 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Patriots | 46c | 1,053$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.44 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Patriots | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 195 | 43.6%85 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Patriots | 55c | 823.27$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.95 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Chargers | 44c | 800$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chargers | 53c | 752.83$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Chargers | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Patriots | 47c | 691.49$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Patriots | 46c | 645.75$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.71 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Patriots | 48c | 522.38$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Patriots | 48c | 500.2$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…a6efbacked Chargers | 46c | 436.96$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Chargers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Chargers | 52c | 289.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14e…f856backed Chargers | 55c | 272.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Chargers | 52c | 218.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.37 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Patriots | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Patriots | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Chargers | 54c | 180.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -5.4wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Patriots | 42c | 156.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.98 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Chargers | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Chargers | 59c | 138.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Chargers | 54c | 112.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Patriots | 43c | 93.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Patriots | 41c | 91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Patriots | 48c | 80.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Patriots | 39c | 70.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Patriots | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Chargers | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c3…a2adbacked Patriots | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Patriots | 47c | 48.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Patriots | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Patriots | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Chargers | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Patriots | 47c | 30.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Chargers | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Chargers | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…8d18backed Patriots | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Patriots | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Chargers | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chargers | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…8d82backed Patriots | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Chargers | 58c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Patriots (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Patriots won
- Chargers vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 49.5Under won
- Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-6.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.