TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa313…e124

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
602
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST16648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 166 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rhamondre Stevenson: First Touchdownbacked Rhamondre Stevenson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Hunter Henry: First Touchdownbacked Hunter Henry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cooper Kupp: First Touchdownbacked Cooper Kupp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Cooper Kupp: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Hunter Henry: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Rhamondre Stevenson: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+150%+$150
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Big Game: Coin toss winner wins the Big Game?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$100
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Tails · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+53.8%+$323.08
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$900
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+65.9%+$889.58
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$372.92
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 43.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+78.6%+$361.43
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$312
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$900
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+66.7%+$400
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+96.1%+$196
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+97.9%+$685.47
Showing 25 of 166 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT16160.9%98 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 161 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+25%+$37.5
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$68.07
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$92.31
France vs. England: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$51.77
France vs. England: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
France vs. England: Draw at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
France vs. England: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$116.22
England vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
France vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
France vs. Spain: France 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$24.67
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Argentina vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$47.95
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$81.25
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$81.66
Norway vs. England: England 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$144.12
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$65.29
Spain vs. Belgium: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$73.09
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
France vs. Morocco: France 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 161 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT5745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Dricus Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$36.94
O/U 3.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$38.64
UFC Fight Night: Alberto Montes vs. Tommy McMillen (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Tommy McMillen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$36.94
UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Austin Bashi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Benoît Saint Denis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
UFC 329: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Terrance McKinney · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Nikita Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+1,179.9%+$153.38
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$13.67
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$48.9
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Sean O'Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+26%+$13
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$30.45
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Derrick Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.37
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Bo Nickal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$16.67
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Diego Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$51.44
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
O/U 3.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will the fight be won by submission?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tatsuro Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Waldo Cortes-Acosta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Aljamain Sterling · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$85.19
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT5651.8%29 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.9
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$56.25
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$122.73
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$108.62
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$96.08
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$143.9
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$80.77
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$85.19
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$100
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$133.02
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$50.46
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT5545.5%25 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)backed Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$82.83
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$93.25
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.36
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-8.5)backed Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.19
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.2
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.7
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$92.19
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.11
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliersbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.77
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-12.5)backed High Point Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$87.91
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.13
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.85
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Missouri Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.7
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruinsbacked UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.59
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.13
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogsbacked Georgia Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.14
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougarsbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.71
VCU Rams vs. North Carolina Tar Heelsbacked North Carolina Tar Heels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.15
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked Ohio State Buckeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.15
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+87.7%+$131.59
Villanova Wildcats vs. Xavier Musketeersbacked Villanova Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+52%+$51.97
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 138.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT4742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$24.02
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$27.08
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$82.17
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$78.06
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$69.23
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinebacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$50
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinebacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$54.31
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$101
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinebacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$57.56
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+150%+$150
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$32.46
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$860Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$860
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$420
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$69.05
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$105.61
New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$31.97
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Soxbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$72.41
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Houston Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Soxbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Metsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-7.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+96.1%+$864.71
Spread: Indiana (-3.5)backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30
California vs. Hawaiibacked California · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$200
California vs. Hawaii: O/U 51.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+108.3%+$216.67
Spread: UNLV Runnin' (-6.5)backed UNLV Runnin' · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$400
O/U 66.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+72.4%+$289.72
Western Kentucky vs. Southern Missbacked Western Kentucky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+203%+$406.06
Spread: Oregon (-21.5)backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$933Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$933
Miami vs. Texas A&Mbacked Texas A&M · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$800
Alabama vs. Oklahomabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+104.1%+$832.65
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan: O/U 47.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$800
O/U 51.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Florida State vs. NC State: O/U 59.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+92.3%+$738.46
UMass vs. Ohio: O/U 52.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+88.7%+$354.72
Spread: Marshall (-7.5)backed Marshall · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+85.2%+$511.11
Clemson vs. Louisville: O/U 50.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$500
O/U 43.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+85.2%+$255.56
All 17 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+600.1%+$1,800.43
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+88.7%+$133.02
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$125
Will Dustin Henderson die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$944Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+63.3%+$597.55
All 8 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$400
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.