TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Spread: Oregon (-21.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James Madisonof Oregon, James Madison
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,124,197
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,120,958

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,124,197 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1496…a429backed Oregon44c460,000$203,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,699.4821055.2%116 W · 94 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed James Madison57c447,992$253,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194,248.8293548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Oregon44c276,691$121,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,364.162759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked James Madison55c200,000$110,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90,0004163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed James Madison56c150,799$84,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,351.4516234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed James Madison56c81,939$45,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,151.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked James Madison56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.999750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Oregon59c31,307$18,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,554.0912746.5%59 W · 68 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed James Madison56c30,000$16,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,25027246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Oregon43c27,892$11,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,996.7811849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon50c24,819$12,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,376.7117946.9%84 W · 95 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Oregon44c18,950$8,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,3387342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oregon42c18,367$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.062,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Oregon43c18,100$7,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7833658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon44c18,049$7,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,964.268440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed James Madison12c16,476$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,576.191241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon40c16,087$6,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,497.8658850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked James Madison55c11,993$6,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3974429.5%13 W · 31 L-7.0wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Oregon43c11,500$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002766.7%18 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon40c10,801$4,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,358.5248546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked James Madison55c9,241$5,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,158.392245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Oregon43c9,000$3,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,87038546%177 W · 208 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed James Madison55c9,000$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.9929055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Oregon41c7,900$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,199.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed James Madison58c7,698$4,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.115345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af1…0f7bbacked Oregon43c7,694$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.98875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+59.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Oregon43c7,638$3,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,284.3414743.5%64 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Oregon44c6,825$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,002.9422750.7%115 W · 112 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Oregon45c5,556$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1f…2204backed Oregon45c5,440$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,448.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Oregon43c4,700$2,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+64%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Oregon44c3,358$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.9420450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Oregon47c2,540$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.071947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed James Madison55c2,330$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.494746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Oregon43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x390b…6ee2backed Oregon45c2,191$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Oregon45c2,073$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9331752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed James Madison56c2,054$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.5711221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed James Madison58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed James Madison55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.982458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Oregon45c1,993$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Oregon44c1,587$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.11457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Oregon45c1,556$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7005149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Oregon41c1,500$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6205549.1%27 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed James Madison55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.992540%10 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-29.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oregon40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50049253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Oregon47c1,201$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.8786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed James Madison55c1,185$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.261163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed James Madison52c1,163$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.7326244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Oregon43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004647.8%22 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a06…3800backed Oregon45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5834…f0cbbacked Oregon43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43011854.2%64 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Oregon45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45042244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Oregon47c1,000$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Oregon44c999.93$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.974639.1%18 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe584…e6e2backed James Madison58c862.07$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.074770.2%33 W · 14 L+8.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+35.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7402…31eabacked Oregon45c624.44$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2811631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed Oregon47c618.86$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.96520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed James Madison14c603.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.1126940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed James Madison56c563.04$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.743452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49d1…7b96backed Oregon45c560.86$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.397846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Oregon45c555$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.753759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+600.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked James Madison57c529.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Oregon45c528.89$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2381752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Oregon46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2304847.9%23 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Oregon25c490.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.63748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+72.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf492…29c2backed Oregon44c459.66$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.544755.3%26 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Oregon43c449.49$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.284037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Oregon45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac2…727bbacked Oregon45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a47…fcf3backed James Madison54c433.98$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed James Madison57c408.9$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.7211056.4%62 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Oregon45c400$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18011436%41 W · 73 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed James Madison58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.834047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed James Madison56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13220950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe18c…37c1backed Oregon43c287.51$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.632245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed James Madison57c279.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.49051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Oregon44c253.57$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.576947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed James Madison55c250$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.514055.7%78 W · 62 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked James Madison6c242.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.861662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+133.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x493c…f027backed Oregon43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Oregon43c232.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.87040%28 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon45c225$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2556844.5%253 W · 315 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…779dbacked Oregon45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+54.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe025…102fbacked Oregon45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Oregon46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed James Madison56c200$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8813432.8%44 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Oregon44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69b6…a5f3backed Oregon46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oregon41c200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819444.7%42 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f8…79a8backed Oregon45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905255.8%29 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Oregon44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8812755.9%71 W · 56 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa6…0b3bbacked Oregon44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf13b…9ef9backed James Madison56c196.41$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.423066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Oregon43c189.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.292552%13 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Oregon45c186$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.77660.5%46 W · 30 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4ed…b35abacked James Madison56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+76.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3c86…288cbacked Oregon60c167.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Oregon45c159.12$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.64643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x881e…6af8backed Oregon43c151.16$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.