TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a06…3800

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: UFC, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 53 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$6,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,000
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+890.1%+$17,801.98
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$2,450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,450
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Spread: Norway (-2.5)backed Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
Spread: Norway (-1.5)backed Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$818.18
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$4,950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,950
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$369.86
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will France win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Paraguay win on 2026-07-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$538.46
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)backed Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Christian Gonzalez win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Marcus Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$5,436Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$5,436.07
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$3,006Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+351%+$10,551.01
Big Game: Overtime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$4,977Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$4,976.67
1H Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$7,818Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$7,817.82
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,362Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+88.7%+$3,868.17
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$480.39
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$627.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Indiana (-4.5)backed Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,050Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+132.6%+$1,391.75
Oregon vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$3,306Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+61%+$2,017.3
Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Miami vs. Ole Missbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+63.9%+$959.02
Miami vs. Ole Miss: O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Spread: Oregon (-21.5)backed Oregon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$500
All 6 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,063Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$7,761.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+75.4%+$408.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.