TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Marcus Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,445
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,145

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,445 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x44fd…b634backed Yes1c75,051$401 inLost-$400.5560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Yes1c25,000$175 inLost-$174.767939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c14,757$33 inLost-$33.4650%0 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a06…3800backed Yes1c14,249$150 inLost-$1501127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed Yes1c13,000$88 inLost-$88520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ac…633bbacked Yes1c10,276$59 inLost-$59.1110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c9,248$55 inLost-$55.4921227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ef…4e3cbacked Yes1c8,000$48 inLost-$481833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Yes1c7,325$59 inLost-$58.63056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca3b…8a31backed Yes1c5,663$50 inLost-$50100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes1c5,447$44 inLost-$43.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-76.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8b…57cdbacked Yes1c4,650$34 inLost-$34.41118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes1c4,510$25 inLost-$24.723732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6799…6410backed Yes0c4,436$13 inLost-$13.3180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c3,357$22 inLost-$21.87674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b08…2f0fbacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost-$202646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbac6…9e2fbacked Yes1c3,309$20 inLost-$202653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea5d…a7a1backed Yes0c2,600$10 inLost-$10.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c2,518$11 inLost-$10.96611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-95.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes1c2,000$16 inLost-$161723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e42…3e2fbacked Yes1c1,548$20 inLost-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-82.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes1c1,429$10 inLost-$1022349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf068…6184backed Yes1c1,228$10 inLost-$103366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa4f0…4be4backed Yes1c1,160$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Yes1c1,020$10 inLost-$102842.9%12 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.