TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will DeMarcus Lawrence win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$317,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,694 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes0c40,100$104 inLost-$103.6316226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x99bd…238ebacked Yes1c31,360$262 inLost-$261.67666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes0c24,004$101 inLost-$101.1221227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c21,539$52 inLost-$51.77650%0 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ef…4e3cbacked Yes0c20,000$60 inLost-$601833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ac…633bbacked Yes0c20,000$89 inLost-$89.07110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c2…3048backed Yes0c17,000$59 inLost-$59520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes0c11,000$54 inLost-$53.94922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f62…4123backed Yes1c10,000$86 inLost-$85.86119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-85.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b82…7a36backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$161723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes0c6,862$34 inLost-$33.623732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c6,646$20 inLost-$19.765679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Yes1c6,613$55 inLost-$552548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12a7…399bbacked Yes1c6,309$49 inLost-$49.174311.6%5 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-65%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost-$153122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Yes2c4,203$70 inLost-$706139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3b…8a31backed Yes1c4,167$25 inLost-$25100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Yes1c4,072$26 inLost-$262326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4867…89dcbacked Yes1c4,000$27 inLost-$27.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes1c3,800$33 inLost-$33.11723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c2,533$10 inLost-$10.04674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1c…9f78backed Yes1c1,300$10 inLost-$10.460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.