TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$927,960
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$799,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,960 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes15c393,766$59,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,134.2947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Yes17c194,446$32,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,652.95154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Yes15c49,302$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,395.273548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Yes15c20,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c19,880$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.31667.6%5 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Yes16c18,750$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yes15c15,221$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.149754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes16c10,006$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Yes16c10,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Yes14c9,074$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.2911750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4536…4237backed Yes16c8,750$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes16c3,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes1c2,395$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.432128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Yes14c2,341$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.771866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Yes14c2,139$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.484348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd518…a1b2backed Yes16c2,139$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.21616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-70.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Yes13c2,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2603253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes14c1,986$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.512924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c1,980$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.913023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac9…9678backed Yes16c1,773$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.682040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes6c1,698$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2321227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes16c1,381$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22110937.6%41 W · 68 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b9…824cbacked Yes17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes1c1,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.324352.7%128 W · 115 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Yes16c1,060$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.62236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d76…9168backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-25%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Yes14c999.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405362.3%33 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Yes15c999.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.99922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes16c972.57$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c9…f6e0backed Yes16c925.37$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd08a…a6d8backed Yes16c917.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes16c843.75$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes16c837.5$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc9…58c7backed Yes16c818.75$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa70b…7a8abacked Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Yes15c670$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2ec…17d7backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31cf…4cd0backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc04…1c43backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ddd…f97ebacked Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed6…1249backed Yes16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf252…e082backed Yes17c600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes15c600$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Yes14c599.97$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Yes15c566.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0931…e78ebacked Yes17c529.41$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-53.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6f…9f31backed Yes4c527.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa3c…61e2backed Yes15c517.12$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.57616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa995…3d50backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+149.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05a4…27cfbacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6512245.9%56 W · 66 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf274…1ed7backed Yes16c437.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c431.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.661444.9%7 W · 137 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-71.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4211…9062backed Yes16c412.5$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes16c341.79$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8b…57cdbacked Yes16c320$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.21118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x216a…1f6ebacked Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8212…5933backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b1a…d790backed Yes14c301.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1a…bf0abacked Yes15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453231.3%10 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1fbcbacked Yes18c269.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…4020backed Yes16c262.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…de5abacked Yes16c262.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4250%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd881…852dbacked Yes20c255.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a0c…8798backed Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d61…fba4backed Yes16c219.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.051020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid+29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac1f…c6adbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7701…24e6backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816845.8%77 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3879…489fbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked No78c199.99$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…31f0backed Yes16c193.75$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1529…41e4backed Yes16c192.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+17.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb875…4d3abacked Yes13c190$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x099e…991abacked Yes16c184.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb51…733cbacked Yes16c167.69$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a56…216dbacked Yes15c166.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+274.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc0…7414backed Yes15c162.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6715…eb49backed Yes15c161$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.381323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+123.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd934…b664backed Yes16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x848f…ffd8backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+59.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x607b…4012backed Yes8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc78f…77a3backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+240.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb2…662abacked Yes15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-49.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5b…a891backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+45%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b2f…f3f6backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes15c127.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.184734%16 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d83…6f66backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0047…1655backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xa33a…223fbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36f4…1db1backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91e8…eb57backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c6…17fabacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-58.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbe…b813backed Yes17c119.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-67%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa65…f79bbacked Yes16c118.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x291d…2f8bbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3d…189dbacked Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc2f…24c1backed Yes17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec8…ca0ebacked Yes16c112.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+431.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.