TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,220,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,179,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,220,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 654 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes41c436,622$177,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,128.0947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked No56c189,628$106,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,593.027554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Yes10c80,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.992740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes43c69,100$29,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,592.1416226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Yes44c50,000$22,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,00016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Yes43c44,000$18,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,919.827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1e2…5029backed Yes44c42,425$18,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,66720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f38…2e85backed Yes52c38,515$20,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,181.85728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b1…968abacked Yes43c35,096$15,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,091.127939.2%31 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed No55c34,550$19,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,441.112450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Yes43c23,000$9,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,89016860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes7c12,196$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.41625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b0…5aaabacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ab…3258backed Yes0c11,970$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No68c11,954$8,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,820.439853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44fd…b634backed Yes44c10,227$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc29…7774backed Yes44c9,773$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3001421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes10c9,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9103839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed Yes43c8,222$3,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed Yes43c8,050$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.497346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No56c7,500$4,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,299.9683147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No57c7,309$4,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,142.925276.9%40 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+21.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Yes8c7,101$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.6620755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No56c7,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.992263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b6b…3ba7backed Yes9c6,066$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.965339.6%21 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No67c5,563$3,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.6364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa65…f79bbacked Yes15c5,103$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.32100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed No57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1506219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa89c…398fbacked Yes56c4,813$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Yes44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,760633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Yes6c3,917$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.443652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes29c3,888$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.032924.1%7 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes17c3,876$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.113023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No44c3,597$1,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Yes41c3,270$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.632623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid+18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…a4c5backed Yes43c3,226$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.241729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-41.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes13c2,945$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.513122.6%7 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-41.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No57c2,777$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.1114342%60 W · 83 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes44c2,729$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.1654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…c62fbacked Yes7c2,619$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.9650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No63c2,570$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.457439.2%29 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked No58c2,513$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0002638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No52c2,405$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.314926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Yes9c2,183$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5117648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec06…9d24backed Yes54c2,144$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.55560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Yes44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8809253.3%49 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8601060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No76c1,988$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.583923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-54.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes7c1,958$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.83650%0 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6539…ad73backed Yes21c1,888$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ca…e8d0backed Yes22c1,714$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.157131%22 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee7e…61bbbacked Yes30c1,638$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.472161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Yes38c1,499$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2919436.6%71 W · 123 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No7c1,428$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.041414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac9…9678backed Yes44c1,337$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.282040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+34.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No15c1,323$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.441323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Yes43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x898e…6025backed Yes44c1,227$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes15c1,165$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x275f…39d9backed No53c1,142$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb44…3eafbacked Yes44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002528%7 W · 18 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…124fbacked Yes44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed No77c1,135$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.761681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick65cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes44c1,126$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.36837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5aa…ef66backed Yes44c1,091$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7379…8916backed Yes42c1,072$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Yes30c1,012$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5016…58e4backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd81…9640backed Yes49c968.29$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…b798backed Yes45c893.94$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3f…6221backed Yes45c893.44$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-26.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f3b…bfb5backed Yes44c886.14$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No57c877.2$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.214035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes44c853.82$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Yes47c850.15$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40012548.8%61 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked Yes44c840.91$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c832$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.162516%4 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed No42c829.76$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.26633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9c…fe9dbacked Yes24c824.1$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked No43c819.89$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…eb6abacked Yes44c789.09$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f0…bdd3backed Yes15c751.9$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9370%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb399…b61fbacked Yes39c750.28$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.61862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ea…b955backed Yes37c746.7$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-57.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17aa…12eebacked Yes42c710.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1d…34e1backed Yes41c700$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick32cpaid-79%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x950a…71e4backed Yes44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f5…4969backed Yes44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe073…871ebacked Yes44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6670…0a3cbacked Yes44c681.82$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed No53c678.13$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.242548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fb0…7263backed Yes43c660.37$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…35dcbacked Yes44c648.18$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc853…9d37backed No57c646$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+204.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbf…9c71backed Yes48c627.76$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Yes43c600$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b3f…5b63backed Yes43c600$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.