TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x66b2…0fdf

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
587
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: UFC, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lollast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT31849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 318 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
LoL: GIANTX vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked GIANTX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$763.64
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+117.3%+$586.49
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
LoL: Team Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,443Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$661.81
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+84.2%+$201.47
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Groupbacked T1 Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$825Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$675
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,060Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$940
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$315
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$2,545Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,545
LoL: LYON vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$653Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+68.5%+$447
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Dignitas (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonbacked Shopify Rebellion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+173.6%+$571
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$171.43
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,751Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,750.53
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,800
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,433Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,433.4
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,494
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters - Game 1 Winnerbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$240
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifierbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.05
LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$330.2
LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winnerbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$233.33
Showing 25 of 318 picks, newest first.
MLBlast resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT7745.5%35 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
MLB — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$432
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Soxbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.1
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlinsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$30
Athletics vs. Houston Astrosbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$517Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$582.88
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,504Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,503.58
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$433.5
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.98
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,037Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+92.1%+$1,876.46
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,396Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,396
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,257Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$987.73
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankeesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,063Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$1,433.8
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,925Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,924.59
Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astrosbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$540
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangersbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$407
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$539Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$539
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,341Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$2,520.41
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$221.97
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Raysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,615Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$1,169.33
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$530
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$579.58
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$638.19
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$978Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+112.2%+$1,097.33
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7640.8%31 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$360
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$864Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$864
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
France to score first vs. Spain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.1
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$282
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$3,233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$2,867
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$177
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$220
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$576.47
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$176.19
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Cabo Verde · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.95
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$73.91
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$77.78
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Mexico vs. Ecuador: Team to Advancebacked Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Sweden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$54.17
Will France win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$89.61
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$264.16
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advancebacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$426.23
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 25, 2026, EDT4360.5%26 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Winston-Salem Open: Raphael Collignon vs Rinky Hijikatabacked Raphael Collignon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
US Open, Qualification ATP: Maks Kasnikowski vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaerbacked Nicolai Budkov Kjaer · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$830Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$642.75
Winston-Salem Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$926Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$384
US Open, Qualification ATP: Harry Wendelken vs Stefano Travagliabacked Harry Wendelken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$352.17
US Open, Qualification ATP: Andrea Guerrieri vs August Holmgrenbacked Andrea Guerrieri · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$326.76
US Open, Qualification ATP: Spencer Johnson vs Cristian Garinbacked Spencer Johnson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$700
Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+106.5%+$890.3
Cincinnati Open: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatekbacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,494Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+75.5%+$1,128.48
Winston-Salem Open, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Ryan Seggermanbacked Ryan Seggerman · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$2,005Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$1,034.8
ITF W35 Verbier Women: Anastasija Cvetkovic vs Mara Guthbacked Mara Guth · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.02
Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobollibacked Tommy Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$998Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$997.5
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Cobollibacked Paul · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Cincinnati Open: Learner Tien vs Frances Tiafoebacked Learner Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,592Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,592
Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Filsbacked Arthur Fils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$377.9
Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskayabacked Sorana Cirstea · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$478Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$322
Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobollibacked Alexander Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$116
Cincinnati Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$739.84
National Bank Open: Talia Gibson vs Ekaterina Alexandrovabacked Talia Gibson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$9,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,800
Canadian Open: Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Belluccibacked Sebastian Baez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$175
National Bank Open: Michael Zheng vs Miomir Kecmanovicbacked Michael Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$295
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsenbacked Taylor Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$400
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Alex de Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Alex Hernandez vs Alan Magadanbacked Alex Hernandez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$81
Wimbledon WTA: Liudmila Samsonova vs Marie Bouzkovabacked Marie Bouzkova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$826Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$574
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
CS2last resolved Aug 24, 2026, EDT2458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Phantom Academy (BO3) - United21 Group Dbacked Phantom Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+75.8%+$258.65
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #7 Group Stagebacked HyperSpirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$233.76
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffsbacked Legacy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$367.5
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2backed B8 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winnerbacked BIG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winnerbacked M80 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1backed FlyQuest · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$171.5
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group Bbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$47.6
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$100
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+100%+$500
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$605Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$605
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Gaimin Gladiators - Map 1 Winnerbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$92
Counter-Strike: NIP vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+42%+$252.15
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winnerbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$181.27
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+54.9%+$107.07
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+69.5%+$208.47
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup 1 Playoffsbacked Zomblers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$26.74
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Astralis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$214.29
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+73.8%+$442.56
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$108
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+49.3%+$140.21
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.6
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,029Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,028.8
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$132.5
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$33.39
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+117.7%+$235.43
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$975.47
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$850Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$850.43
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$756
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$320
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$336
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+92.3%+$191.99
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.6
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$117.2
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$103.94
All 21 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFLlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBAlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Fever vs. Chicago Skybacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$490.91
Washington Mystics vs. Portland Firebacked Portland Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Spread: Indiana Fever (-3.5)backed Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$327Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+99.7%+$326.24
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$948Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+58.2%+$552.02
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+29.9%+$224.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Flyers vs. Maple Leafsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+102.8%+$205.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$136
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2backed BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$33.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
Mlslast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,064Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,063.89
Will CF Montréal vs. Inter Miami CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 17, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+616.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+616.2%+$154.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$288.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Everton FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffsbacked Leviatán Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.