TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Rockets, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,530,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,848,712

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,530,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,381 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat44c329,529$144,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185,009.6987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Rockets56c299,999$168,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167,999.5648343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dbf…53bebacked Heat44c156,231$68,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,489.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat43c132,664$57,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,648.782,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Rockets56c121,309$67,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,933.1617646%81 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Rockets56c120,000$67,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,20023257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat44c100,000$44,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,000.191,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Heat44c87,108$38,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,780.3130845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f6d…4ad5backed Rockets57c79,000$45,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,019.157943%34 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked Rockets60c75,000$45,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,999.9611955.5%66 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Rockets54c74,079$39,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,799.7442348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Rockets56c70,000$39,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,2001,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Rockets60c54,814$32,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,701.9851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Rockets58c50,771$29,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,658.8820454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Rockets57c50,403$28,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,537.0629650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Rockets51c40,728$20,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,717.9317249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde18…83bcbacked Rockets28c36,164$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0009250%46 W · 46 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Rockets56c35,714$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,00034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fc…099dbacked Rockets57c35,000$19,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9501250%6 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat56c32,137$17,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,223.12,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Rockets58c31,362$18,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,089.212,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat66c30,529$20,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,267.481,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed Rockets49c30,000$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7005750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Rockets54c29,676$15,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,896.681,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Heat50c29,270$14,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,546.6648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat56c28,508$16,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,505.785,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat42c25,492$10,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,785.451,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Rockets0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Heat43c25,000$10,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,25038251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Rockets61c24,564$14,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,983.9419954.8%109 W · 90 L+12.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Heat44c23,000$10,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,88037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat50c21,862$10,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,037.474,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat40c21,698$8,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,947.834,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Heat44c21,534$9,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,059.3128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f12…435cbacked Heat45c20,000$8,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,001.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9065…5c03backed Rockets55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Rockets71c19,500$13,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,889.253565.7%23 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Heat43c19,300$8,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,00110035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Rockets57c19,300$11,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,000.979758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Rockets56c18,000$10,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,08054539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9569…27fdbacked Rockets57c17,000$9,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,689.9913959.7%83 W · 56 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Rockets58c16,403$9,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,531.2532540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Heat40c16,011$6,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,606.541,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Heat42c15,731$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,191.159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Heat41c15,000$6,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,849.9711252.7%59 W · 53 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat51c12,616$6,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,192.791,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Rockets56c12,500$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00010746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Heat41c12,500$5,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,37515349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Heat37c12,087$4,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,643.6535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Heat43c11,600$4,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,621.998640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Rockets57c11,600$6,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,621.979054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Heat42c11,400$4,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,577.929250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Heat51c11,172$5,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,502.931,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Heat54c11,085$6,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,058.1589444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Rockets57c10,916$6,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,175.531,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Rockets53c10,706$5,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,644.713,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Rockets58c10,000$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,799.962050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Rockets55c9,013$4,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,956.884,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Rockets50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5008451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Rockets56c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Rockets36c8,700$3,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15512954.3%70 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Heat46c8,644$3,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,647.8141954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Heat44c8,436$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,697.4941832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e29…5baebacked Rockets48c8,348$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Rockets55c8,337$4,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,557.0962144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat58c8,177$4,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,456.443,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a18…85b5backed Rockets44c8,143$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,544.828440.5%34 W · 50 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Heat44c8,000$3,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.3735251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat44c8,000$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,48087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Heat41c8,000$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7201,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42ef…9198backed Rockets57c8,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,560540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Heat42c8,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,639.9845348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Rockets49c7,708$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.9461939.6%245 W · 374 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9852…111abacked Rockets60c7,547$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5008953.9%48 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat42c7,440$3,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,327.641,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Heat45c7,409$3,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,074.8921944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Heat42c7,235$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,196.529055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Rockets50c7,222$3,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.3730840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Rockets51c7,110$3,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,630.3438540.3%155 W · 230 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Rockets55c7,109$3,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,909.726657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6319…4fd7backed Rockets57c7,052$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Heat45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85024549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heat50c7,000$3,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,469.9948845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Heat42c6,938$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,053.0824744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Rockets53c6,937$3,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,657.534852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat43c6,926$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,926.41,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Rockets48c6,795$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,269.821,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc44…e036backed Rockets53c6,776$3,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,624.081040%4 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-42%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09e0…e546backed Heat44c6,623$2,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.883345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Heat43c6,586$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.3665750.1%329 W · 328 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Rockets65c6,554$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,260.119957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1eda…9c47backed Heat42c6,533$2,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,789.331040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked Rockets56c6,500$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6402548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8443…5119backed Heat62c6,494$4,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.774748.9%23 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc918…f848backed Rockets71c6,332$4,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4653959%23 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Rockets56c6,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2795…fd6bbacked Rockets47c6,000$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,819.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid+9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Rockets51c5,950$3,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,034.4911737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da0…555ebacked Rockets59c5,850$3,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,451.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c75…b299backed Rockets56c5,661$3,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1704438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.