NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9442b46ec1a1d59025a641abf8af4969c26395791e24b91d00827e14c25c4bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb30a…7fc3backed Over | 58c | 6,924$3,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,993.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 6,675$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,848.82 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 57c | 2,432$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.13 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 2,226$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.02 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 1,484$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.12 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 57c | 1,072$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.17 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 1,014$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.75 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Under | 43c | 794$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.58 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 43c | 632.57$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.07 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 597.09$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.22 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Over | 58c | 572.41$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 21c | 562.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.03 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 513.73$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.18 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 44c | 497.28$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 386.77$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 57c | 363.35$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.01 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 337.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…7fe2backed Over | 58c | 256.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 45c | 249.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.03 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 43c | 245.87$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.15 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Under | 43c | 230$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 43c | 218.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 69c | 218.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.59 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -19.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…430ebacked Over | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Over | 54c | 186.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 42c | 176.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.62 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…dc8bbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…6b8abacked Over | 61c | 165.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -16.2wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 43c | 148.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Over | 20c | 133.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Under | 43c | 132.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 124$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 41c | 122.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.86 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…5116backed Over | 50c | 108.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 62c | 106.46$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…09d4backed Over | 50c | 100.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 99.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…28dabacked Over | 57c | 95.28$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 89.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 53c | 89.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 42c | 72.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ff…30e8backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 373 | 44.2%165 W · 208 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…e145backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Over | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 46.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…cf96backed Under | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Over | 58c | 40.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 214 | 59.3%127 W · 87 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…6dc1backed Under | 49c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…3acebacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Over | 58c | 31.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 28.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Under | 41c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Over | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 46c | 25.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Under | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…9b31backed Over | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 52c | 22.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…59a6backed Over | 58c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…6c27backed Under | 69c | 14.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Rockets vs. HeatHeat won
- Rockets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.