NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08c4d08fc203fe44917c8d1a7812708dfeb508c91261c6ae0047bb0e804478c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Over | 56c | 3,465$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.99 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over | 57c | 1,587$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.68 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 52c | 1,488$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.22 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 43c | 1,448$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.67 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 806.24$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 550.42$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.63 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Over | 41c | 538.89$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.08 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 450.34$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 443.6$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.05 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 48c | 366.4$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 62c | 360.26$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 320.2$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 47c | 260.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 234.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 43c | 234.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.13 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 229.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 54c | 203.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…9fe6backed Over | 50c | 199.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 160$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 46c | 132$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7df5backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 122.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 115.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.22 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x468d…cf23backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 52c | 76.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c9c4backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 37c | 67.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 62.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Over | 53c | 60.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…5cb6backed Under | 47c | 44.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…430ebacked Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7715…ada4backed Over | 53c | 29.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Over | 55c | 27.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…7ce6backed Under | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 41c | 25.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Under | 46c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 65c | 23.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 178 | 44.4%79 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…f519backed Under | 48c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…9b31backed Over | 48c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Rockets vs. HeatHeat won
- Rockets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.