TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,862 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6368…6dc8backed Over56c3,465$1,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.9910352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over57c1,587$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.6812844.5%57 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under52c1,488$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.222,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under43c1,448$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.672,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c806.24$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.558,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c550.42$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.633,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Over41c538.89$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0819435.1%68 W · 126 L-13.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.122,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under41c450.34$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.71,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under51c443.6$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.053,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over48c366.4$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.733,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under62c360.26$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.631,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under44c320.2$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.775,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under47c260.44$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13945646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over44c234.89$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.252,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under43c234.83$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.135,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c229.94$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.184,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…9141backed Over54c203.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106453.1%34 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdf…9fe6backed Over50c199.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under46c132$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.2856547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc036…7df5backed Over58c129.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c122.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.824,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under53c115.39$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.223,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.568645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534546.7%21 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc212…c8ebbacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548041.3%33 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2886…9bb2backed Under52c76.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7110945%49 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c9c4backed Over57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Under37c67.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8939047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6765872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under47c62.07$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c1d…d05ebacked Over53c60.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3214728.6%42 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Over56c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8867921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3008…5cb6backed Under47c44.69$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.696446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02e9…430ebacked Over58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.45714%8 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7715…ada4backed Over53c29.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.876344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd45…c05ebacked Over55c27.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d6d…7ce6backed Under75c25.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under41c25.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Under46c25.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5910743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Over65c23.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0717844.4%79 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4884…f519backed Under48c22.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.847642.1%32 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb94d…9b31backed Over48c22.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6533…0f9cbacked Over55c21.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1249358.6%289 W · 204 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over57c19.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2965630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.