NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb3e4c6343bc0bd67ea95e58e294489929dde11aa062868fc9b178aabb08cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 50c | 22,000$10,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,049.98 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 50c | 15,000$7,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,452.4 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 7,500$3,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,674.99 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 6,666$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 2,069$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.12 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…681abacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 1,826$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.9 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 1,527$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.98 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 1,453$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.5 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 1,388$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.53 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 1,075$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.67 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Over | 50c | 969.77$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.89 | 296 | 50.3%149 W · 147 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 50c | 738.21$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.11 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 51c | 468.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.81 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Under | 51c | 450$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…b214backed Over | 50c | 204.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.42 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 51c | 61.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 51c | 51.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 587 | 54.7%321 W · 266 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…561cbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 47.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…aea9backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Over | 47c | 28.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…0ddcbacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…6bf0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Alperen Sengün: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Alperen Sengün: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Bam Adebayo: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Bam Adebayo: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kel'el Ware: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Kevin Durant: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Reed Sheppard: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Rockets vs. HeatHeat won
- Rockets vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 223.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 224.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Heat won
- Tyler Herro: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Tyler Herro: Points O/U 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.