TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x25c2…cd02

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
337
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Premier League, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 65 out of 100; worst MLB at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT12954.3%70 W · 59 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 129 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.75
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.38
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.83
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$18.73
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$21.84
Pacers vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,133.11
76ers vs. Wizards: O/U 240.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,471Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,470.77
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$770.55
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.02
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.33
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$42.63
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.97
Pistons vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$766Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$197.55
Wizards vs. Lakersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.46
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 23.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.88
Jayson Tatum: Assists O/U 4.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.79
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+89%+$10.52
Spread: 76ers (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.22
Suns vs. Grizzliesbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$176.65
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 21.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.56
Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 11.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Nikola Jokić: Rebounds O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12.29
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$201.65
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$583Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$148.26
Showing 25 of 129 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT5451.9%28 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$53.98
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$82
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$90
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked SK Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$358
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$44.35
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1backed Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$16.85
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 1backed Ninjas in Pyjamas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Movistar KOI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$376.54
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stagebacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.71
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$544Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$544.17
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffsbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$38.89
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$277.98
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.26
Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$308.8
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$1,732.5
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$38.61
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+435.9%+$9,582.55
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$39.03
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 4 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group Bbacked LYON · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.23
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT3259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Kings vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Ducks vs. Flamesbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$23.08
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+116%+$174.05
Ducks vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
Blackhawks vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
Blues vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.93
Maple Leafs vs. Senators: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+72.5%+$152.42
Ducks vs. Utahbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.67
Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$190
Canadiens vs. Red Wingsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$411Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$410.8
Lightning vs. Krakenbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,260Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$740
Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$861Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+74.2%+$639.12
Kings vs. Rangersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,014Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$985.8
Panthers vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,257Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$742.93
Utah vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.66
Oilers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.68
Hurricanes vs. Flames: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$276
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST-100%-$216.55
Wild vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Blues vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Canucks vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Panthers vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Senators vs. Flamesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+61.3%+$15.32
Lightning vs. Jetsbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.53
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffsbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffsbacked Sinners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$6.67
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Sinners (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.5
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$42.26
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$29.38
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$26.41
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$26.11
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$9.83
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Bbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.75
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winnerbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.75
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Abacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.76
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+56.3%+$28.13
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed Aurora Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$32.85
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+33.7%+$84.19
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,530Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$1,470
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$3,646Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$3,646.4
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA - Map 1 Winnerbacked Passion UA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,386Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,386.25
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$188.5
Counter-Strike: NIP vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1backed NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,551Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+96.1%+$2,451.08
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffsbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$177.25
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stagebacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$25
All 24 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT1776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.8wins+0.34per pick42cpaid+137%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Premier League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.5
Will Liverpool FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$664
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+70.2%+$237.54
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$810
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$946Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+525%+$4,965.84
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$5,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$5,359.95
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,494Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+212.5%+$3,175.45
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+72.4%+$90.16
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$910Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+669.2%+$6,090
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,970Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+203%+$6,030
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$1,600
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,525Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+99.8%+$3,518.86
Leeds United FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+112.8%+$28.19
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+115.1%+$57.54
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$6,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+66.7%+$4,000
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+28.2%+$7.05
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick35cpaid+150.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13,314Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$5,647.84
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$6,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,368.75
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$6,204Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,203.52
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+133.2%+$33.29
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$15.78
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+75.4%+$18.86
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,328.6%+$4,650
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+488.2%+$122.06
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$42.57
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$16.52
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$105.08
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Florida Gators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.37
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.97
UCF Knights vs. UCLA Bruinsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.27
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Clemson Tigersbacked Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.03
Siena Saints vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Siena Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$543Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$542.74
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyesbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$273.36
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.49
Houston Cougars vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 135.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$24.02
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick63cpaid-54.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Olympics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
1. FC Köln vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$26.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+77%+$364.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$102.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Paper Rex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+37%+$9.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kyler Murray be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.44
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.