TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: 76ers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof 76ers, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$637,660
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$694,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $637,660 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 448 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc41…dd7ebacked 76ers48c81,094$39,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,312.386547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat52c51,202$26,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,591.4560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Heat52c50,928$26,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,678.2215952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked 76ers50c48,903$24,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,625.0236549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Heat52c47,130$24,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,722.3843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat51c44,444$22,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,777.5547848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat51c38,307$19,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,780.011,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed 76ers49c30,066$14,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,775.0726648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Heat51c24,934$12,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,217.6417249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x079e…8254backed 76ers49c22,374$10,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,980.965750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers49c19,105$9,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,3144,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Heat51c17,382$8,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,517.411457.9%66 W · 48 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked 76ers48c17,361$8,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,342.96746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed 76ers48c13,531$6,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,494.6818749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Heat50c13,081$6,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,556.284,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ad…5195backed 76ers49c12,061$5,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,910.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-67.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe66e…abddbacked 76ers50c11,996$5,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,997.784035%14 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Heat51c10,352$5,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,047.821,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed 76ers49c10,111$4,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,964.6921350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed 76ers49c9,925$4,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,863.211,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Heat50c9,925$4,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,008.8737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed 76ers48c9,727$4,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,702.13,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Heat52c9,254$4,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,441.9219346.1%89 W · 104 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers47c8,999$4,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,229.62,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed 76ers48c8,118$3,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.757451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat51c8,000$4,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,916.887750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Heat52c7,759$4,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,727.311,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed 76ers48c6,772$3,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.5821943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed 76ers48c6,459$3,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,077.191,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55e4…c3c6backed Heat50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0004443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb4e…178cbacked 76ers49c5,918$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked 76ers48c5,806$2,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,787.0654539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Heat53c5,777$3,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,739.761,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x816e…b215backed Heat53c5,576$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,620.622433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-33.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed 76ers49c5,418$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,654.5982442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf944…3893backed 76ers50c5,319$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked 76ers50c5,301$2,643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,642.7362539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Heat52c4,981$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.121,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed 76ers49c4,789$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,32314940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4108…9e22backed 76ers48c4,539$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.875036%18 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Heat50c4,311$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.6119747.7%94 W · 103 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked 76ers50c4,282$2,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.882,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Heat53c4,118$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,929.361,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed 76ers48c4,104$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.0518349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…3760backed 76ers49c4,066$1,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,985.685547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked 76ers48c4,000$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92035749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked 76ers48c3,899$1,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,871.5538946%179 W · 210 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed 76ers49c3,854$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,878.4270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0daa…c9dabacked Heat52c3,781$1,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.872060%12 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed 76ers52c3,759$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.0711249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5856…d005backed Heat53c3,715$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,746.19560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked 76ers48c3,553$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.3117349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf234…7f34backed 76ers50c3,552$1,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.04666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked 76ers49c3,213$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.3812646%58 W · 68 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat58c3,212$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.652,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91f7…4767backed 76ers49c2,995$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.8910651.9%55 W · 51 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a8b…f2b1backed Heat50c2,852$1,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers47c2,784$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.22,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat49c2,759$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.015,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked 76ers48c2,749$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.66,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x273e…d054backed 76ers49c2,712$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8319…1a76backed Heat50c2,662$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.23683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick50cpaid+68.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Heat53c2,649$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.7627455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed 76ers49c2,463$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.6369149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat51c2,240$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.74,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9175…bd29backed Heat52c2,189$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.593060%18 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed 76ers49c2,184$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.1847856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 76ers50c2,156$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.831,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 76ers47c2,071$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Heat51c2,012$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.071,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Heat50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Heat50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00025641.4%106 W · 150 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed 76ers48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9606939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed 76ers50c1,971$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.492,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed Heat51c1,929$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.311558.3%67 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 76ers49c1,741$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.183,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Heat51c1,738$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.7417247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d1…4c30backed 76ers49c1,659$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.79742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…30d5backed 76ers49c1,657$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.741428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Heat52c1,565$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.9957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed 76ers48c1,540$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.3416635.5%59 W · 107 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heat51c1,528$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.8816841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed 76ers49c1,478$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.9851753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed 76ers48c1,421$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68231643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Heat65c1,379$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.5120963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed 76ers50c1,379$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.521957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Heat56c1,350$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.21,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed 76ers52c1,240$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.7152760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed 76ers50c1,182$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59112542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed 76ers50c1,182$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59113748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers43c1,052$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.728,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked 76ers48c1,026$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5150754.2%275 W · 232 L+13.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eaf…0ee0backed Heat50c1,014$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.85475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+51%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ee4…18efbacked 76ers49c1,005$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed 76ers49c1,004$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.550954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Heat50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50040947.7%195 W · 214 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed 76ers48c999.99$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48072241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 76ers43c978.54$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.0289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Heat52c919.25$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.2419745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.