NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a3ce16fbdec7c431d1a90a5529fa1631db2c20d8dc2f0a9d70cd337b5e5268

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,457

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,295 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x564c…f4a7backed Over	1c	1,752$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbd…7d99backed Under	56c	1,506$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$667.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Over	45c	832.22$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.5	149	53%79 W · 70 L	+10.0wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c27…eea9backed Under	60c	828.21$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$335.15	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+68%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	42c	742.31$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.8	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under	4c	451.21$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.16	760	54.6%415 W · 345 L	+56.7wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Over	40c	218.8$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.52	378	42.9%162 W · 216 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ba…06b3backed Over	51c	193.14$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.5	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Over	43c	105.27$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	248	41.9%104 W · 144 L	-9.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over	45c	86.47$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	554	44.4%246 W · 308 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Over	51c	49.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	557	51.9%289 W · 268 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Over	45c	39.41$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	144	43.1%62 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a9…7876backed Over	45c	27.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-4.2wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over	52c	20.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	376	65.4%246 W · 130 L	+62.0wins	+0.16per pick	49cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

76ers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 125.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event