TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

76ers vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof 76ers, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,590,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,812,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,590,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,524 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07b8…8e25backed 76ers55c450,474$246,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246,380.8123257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe934…640bbacked Heat44c339,984$149,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190,391.153860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Heat45c282,354$127,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,981.5187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked 76ers56c227,546$127,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127,430.896547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 76ers56c194,625$108,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108,928.62,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe34b…3b60backed Heat45c183,238$82,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100,780.851346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Heat45c152,012$68,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,606.6816841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked 76ers56c131,949$73,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,891.236549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed Heat44c115,798$50,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,846.9650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e43…a3cdbacked Heat44c112,379$49,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,932.1843542.8%186 W · 249 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed 76ers55c100,000$55,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,0008750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Heat44c99,259$43,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,58515952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Heat40c87,898$34,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,042.7166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Heat56c86,080$47,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,092.211,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Heat44c82,987$36,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,472.5332653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30d1…cd88backed 76ers56c78,817$44,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,137.684151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed 76ers56c78,733$43,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,923.0632540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3885…ca77backed 76ers56c61,366$34,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,36510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked 76ers34c57,351$19,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,477.566744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed 76ers55c50,000$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,5005350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed 76ers0c49,997$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed 76ers2c46,785$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.141417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked 76ers63c41,164$26,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,108.081,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed 76ers74c39,586$29,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,328.7422457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Heat59c37,811$22,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,640.522,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 76ers35c37,767$13,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,368.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed 76ers56c35,581$19,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,925.419957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed 76ers57c34,597$19,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,824.035567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Heat41c32,608$13,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,151.6649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed 76ers47c30,655$14,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,467.593,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked 76ers55c28,659$15,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,762.434456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat51c27,335$13,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,394.551,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Heat49c27,242$13,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,945.211,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat64c25,735$16,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,162.422,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked 76ers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 76ers71c22,806$16,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,192.192,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdd…8bd4backed Heat44c22,534$9,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,663.932420.8%5 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed 76ers57c21,800$12,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,425.948834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Heat44c21,173$9,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,859.591520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Heat45c20,438$9,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,24127241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed 76ers1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Heat44c20,000$8,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,299.9360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed 76ers55c19,830$10,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,950.932050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked 76ers55c19,703$10,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,836.6520352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5919…95acbacked 76ers56c18,570$10,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,404.5811543.5%50 W · 65 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed 76ers55c16,836$9,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,282.8521350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Heat62c16,365$10,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,252.984963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed 76ers51c16,354$8,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,291.6776850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ef…1f02backed 76ers31c16,261$5,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,067.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed 76ers56c15,763$8,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,827.542263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 76ers56c15,638$8,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,764.891,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Heat45c15,000$6,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,250.071,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1b…e748backed 76ers55c14,882$8,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,185.352352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Heat45c14,777$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,127.4939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed 76ers56c14,693$8,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,287.1252760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Heat43c14,230$6,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,146.7762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed 76ers56c14,170$7,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,881.5342348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed 76ers55c13,528$7,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,440.662,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed 76ers55c13,508$7,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,429.348532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed 76ers25c13,278$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,279.778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed 76ers47c13,127$6,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,169.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed 76ers50c12,851$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,450.165633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Heat41c12,583$5,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,373.0511335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Heat72c12,326$8,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,502.724257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed 76ers62c11,786$7,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,307.326841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 76ers67c11,133$7,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,429.681,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Heat44c10,893$4,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,099.9958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Heat46c10,833$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,837.4627865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked 76ers50c10,646$5,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,295.848225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Heat48c10,438$4,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,473.1830157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat46c10,372$4,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,645.194,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed 76ers44c10,179$4,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,528.7950241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed 76ers54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40020454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Heat45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,50019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked 76ers55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Heat44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6009159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Heat44c10,000$4,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,561.0843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Heat43c9,859$4,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,619.6872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Heat45c9,852$4,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,418.333366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed 76ers50c9,692$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,835.2124937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Heat46c9,088$4,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,868.841,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Heat44c8,911$3,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,954.7786641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed 76ers56c8,797$4,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,926.084845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed 76ers70c8,777$6,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,143.981,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed 76ers41c8,506$3,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,483.618931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 76ers51c7,961$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.8489444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Heat57c7,957$4,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,424.15064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed 76ers50c7,955$3,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,940.0110747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f6…6d85backed 76ers56c7,917$4,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,433.4715252%79 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Heat45c7,881$3,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,334.661,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed 76ers45c7,689$3,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.7636023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked 76ers47c7,326$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.4517962%111 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Heat43c7,319$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,171.73941%16 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Heat61c7,296$4,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.388451.2%43 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked 76ers55c7,154$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,919.572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Heat63c7,027$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,635.024148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Heat44c6,888$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,837.6265939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed 76ers56c6,768$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,790.321520%3 W · 12 L-6.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-71.7%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed 76ers57c6,568$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.7441832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 76ers44c6,420$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.252,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.