TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0d03…9e27

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT8532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 85 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,555Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,555.17
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,873.81
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$4,966Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,965.77
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,459Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$2,773.48
1H Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,287.71
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$983Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$983.08
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$7,075Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+134.2%+$9,492.09
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,552Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,034.75
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$1,921.57
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,379Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,378.76
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$1,200
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$6,204Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+71.2%+$4,414.54
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$3,144Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$4,001.81
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,730Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,729.76
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,198Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$2,287.21
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$980Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$2,180.67
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,939Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,939.24
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,507Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,506.68
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,478Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$2,311.63
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$2,189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,189.26
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,601Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,601.14
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,934Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,933.62
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,956Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,955.6
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,550.57
Showing 25 of 85 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,968Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,968.15
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Michael Chandler · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$489Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$489.27
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Gabriel Bonfim · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,982Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$2,104.26
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Farés Ziam · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Bryce Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,291Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$1,951.52
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Melquizael Costa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,486Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,486
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$455
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$591.85
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Modestas Bukauskas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$169.67
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$629.69
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+85.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,989Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+610.6%+$12,146.63
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$5,106Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$5,994.14
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$3,326Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,326.01
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,471.45
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5)backed Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$6,939Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+83.3%+$5,777.71
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5)backed Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.82
All 6 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.